Showing posts with label bloomberg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bloomberg. Show all posts
Sunday, 11 March 2012
Gold on Sunday night 11 March 2012
BullionVault's market report from Friday is the only outline I've read of what went on at the end of last week.
Friday, 4 November 2011
What people are saying about gold and gold ETFs: 4 November 2011
The deal from Hargreaves Lansdown at 11.09am. I couldn't make up my mind again (details below).
Before that, here's what some other people have been saying:
Up or down
Nicholas Trevethan, a senior metals strategist at ANZ Bank told Reuters: "If Papandreou keeps his mandate, that may well trigger another round of buying, not only in gold but in other commodities as well." (From Reuters: "Gold eases after rally")
Down
In the physical market the piece reports the current price could be too much for jewellers to buy and "speculators could be tempted to cash on gold's recent gains" and higher prices might prompt people to sell their scrap gold. (From Reuters: "Gold eases after rally")
Up for now
"I think gold is really supported by the euro zone (crisis)," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
"I think sentiment is more or less still bullish because of the Greek problem and the banking sector is also not good. People are still packing their money into safe-haven assets," said Leung, who pegged resistance at $1,800. (From Reuters: "Gold eases after rally")
Up (in euros)
Bloomberg quotes Dennis Gartman: “The driving force in the gold market is the problems in the euro" adding that “Central banks in Europe and individuals will want to lower their euro holdings and buy gold since no one knows what is happening to the euro. The euro is heading towards parity once again.”
He then said: “Gold is a currency.” (He's wrong, according to Dean below...)
This morning Citywire's chart of the day notes the rise in Physical Gold ETF holdings and quotes strategists at Commerzbank: 'Gold can be expected to enjoy continued strong demand as a store of value and a safe haven amid the many U-turns we have seen during the Greek crisis.'
Citywire also quoted RBS strategists: ‘Gold is now building a bridgehead and we forecast higher prices in the months ahead with an average of $1,900/oz possible during the key gifting period of the 2012 Chinese Lunar New Year.’
UP
A piece on Seeking Alpha by George Maniere, who's blog can be found at Investing Advice said: "In conclusion, I think that every retail investor needs to have 20% of his portfolio in gold and silver. What they need is exposure to precious metals. The biggest threat to anyone in retirement is inflation. "
He also said: "Look for gold to attack $1775 first, then $1800, $1840, and $1900 in the coming six to ten weeks or so."
Up or down
Nicholas Trevethan, a senior metals strategist at ANZ Bank told Reuters: "If Papandreou keeps his mandate, that may well trigger another round of buying, not only in gold but in other commodities as well." (From Reuters: "Gold eases after rally")
Down
In the physical market the piece reports the current price could be too much for jewellers to buy and "speculators could be tempted to cash on gold's recent gains" and higher prices might prompt people to sell their scrap gold. (From Reuters: "Gold eases after rally")
Up for now
"I think gold is really supported by the euro zone (crisis)," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
"I think sentiment is more or less still bullish because of the Greek problem and the banking sector is also not good. People are still packing their money into safe-haven assets," said Leung, who pegged resistance at $1,800. (From Reuters: "Gold eases after rally")
Up (in euros)
Bloomberg quotes Dennis Gartman: “The driving force in the gold market is the problems in the euro" adding that “Central banks in Europe and individuals will want to lower their euro holdings and buy gold since no one knows what is happening to the euro. The euro is heading towards parity once again.”
He then said: “Gold is a currency.” (He's wrong, according to Dean below...)
From "Gartman sees gold in euros..."
Up
On 2 November Bloomberg said its "Top gold seers forecast record high in March" The piece cites Ronald Stoeferle at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, apparently he is Bloomberg's "second most- accurate forecaster in the past three months".
He said: "There is a loss of trust in the entire financial system and urgent need for safe-haven investment” adding “the environment for gold is just perfect.”
Up or down
But then, later it has Dean Junkans an analyst at Wells Fargo & Co. (whose accuracy as a forecaster is not mentioned although he did say back in August that gold is a “bubble that is poised to burst” before the price plunged).
He said: “It’s not risk free and is not a currency, even though too many people think of it that way” adding “It can go down to $1,300, and could also rise to $2,000, but there is definitely a downside potential.”
Up euro stlye
Up
Bloomberg's "most accuarte" gold analyst - Jochen Hitzfeld, the analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich - said: "There’s huge potential for gold in the coming years.” He said: “Investors are buying gold. That’s reinforced by buying from central banks. Prices did run up a little bit too fast, but the drop was just a breather.”
Up
Bloomberg's fifth most accurate analyst Jason Schenker, the president of Prestige Economics LLC in Austin, Texas, said: “When we look at gold five years from now, we will say gold was wildly cheap." He said: “What happens to gold is going to hinge on what happens to the dollar, and that is going to be influenced by what happens in Europe and monetary policy.”
“The driving force in the gold market is the problems in the euro. ” He said: “Central banks in Europe and individuals will want to lower their euro holdings and buy gold since no one knows what is happening to the euro. The euro is heading towards parity once again.”
UP
Up
On 2 November Bloomberg said its "Top gold seers forecast record high in March" The piece cites Ronald Stoeferle at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, apparently he is Bloomberg's "second most- accurate forecaster in the past three months".
He said: "There is a loss of trust in the entire financial system and urgent need for safe-haven investment” adding “the environment for gold is just perfect.”
Up or down
But then, later it has Dean Junkans an analyst at Wells Fargo & Co. (whose accuracy as a forecaster is not mentioned although he did say back in August that gold is a “bubble that is poised to burst” before the price plunged).
He said: “It’s not risk free and is not a currency, even though too many people think of it that way” adding “It can go down to $1,300, and could also rise to $2,000, but there is definitely a downside potential.”
Up euro stlye
Up
Bloomberg's "most accuarte" gold analyst - Jochen Hitzfeld, the analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich - said: "There’s huge potential for gold in the coming years.” He said: “Investors are buying gold. That’s reinforced by buying from central banks. Prices did run up a little bit too fast, but the drop was just a breather.”
Up
Bloomberg's fifth most accurate analyst Jason Schenker, the president of Prestige Economics LLC in Austin, Texas, said: “When we look at gold five years from now, we will say gold was wildly cheap." He said: “What happens to gold is going to hinge on what happens to the dollar, and that is going to be influenced by what happens in Europe and monetary policy.”
“The driving force in the gold market is the problems in the euro. ” He said: “Central banks in Europe and individuals will want to lower their euro holdings and buy gold since no one knows what is happening to the euro. The euro is heading towards parity once again.”
UP
This morning Citywire's chart of the day notes the rise in Physical Gold ETF holdings and quotes strategists at Commerzbank: 'Gold can be expected to enjoy continued strong demand as a store of value and a safe haven amid the many U-turns we have seen during the Greek crisis.'
Citywire also quoted RBS strategists: ‘Gold is now building a bridgehead and we forecast higher prices in the months ahead with an average of $1,900/oz possible during the key gifting period of the 2012 Chinese Lunar New Year.’
UP
A piece on Seeking Alpha by George Maniere, who's blog can be found at Investing Advice said: "In conclusion, I think that every retail investor needs to have 20% of his portfolio in gold and silver. What they need is exposure to precious metals. The biggest threat to anyone in retirement is inflation. "
He also said: "Look for gold to attack $1775 first, then $1800, $1840, and $1900 in the coming six to ten weeks or so."
So what do I do?
The deal from Hargreaves Lansdown at 11.09am was this:
Two days ago I was looking at this:
This is what PHAU was doing.
The bigger move was the pound, up 0.6% against the dollar (Google chart link) and the dollar value of PHAU is down a bit (Google Chart link) together they point to a 1% better price for a UK gold ETF investor.
But as I've pointed out before, I won't know if that's why I'm getting the price I'm getting from HL.
So I'm still not sure about buying now or waiting til after the Greek votes and non farm payrolls in the US.
The latter could see some changes in the value of the dollar. I'm not sure it'll have much effect on the price of gold - but both of these are guesses. I'll have to have a look.
I want to try and see what my decision making process is and why my brain screams "don't do it" every time I think I might.
The deal from Hargreaves Lansdown at 11.09am was this:
Two days ago I was looking at this:
This is what PHAU was doing.
The bigger move was the pound, up 0.6% against the dollar (Google chart link) and the dollar value of PHAU is down a bit (Google Chart link) together they point to a 1% better price for a UK gold ETF investor.
But as I've pointed out before, I won't know if that's why I'm getting the price I'm getting from HL.
So I'm still not sure about buying now or waiting til after the Greek votes and non farm payrolls in the US.
The latter could see some changes in the value of the dollar. I'm not sure it'll have much effect on the price of gold - but both of these are guesses. I'll have to have a look.
I want to try and see what my decision making process is and why my brain screams "don't do it" every time I think I might.
Wednesday, 2 November 2011
Gold ETF Investor market report: 2 November 2011
This isn't really a market report. Here's what some other people are saying. You could spend a lot of time reading it - but would it help?
A general goldy newsy piece from Reuters: Gold rises on deepening eurozone crisis which included this on ETFs:
"Last month, global holdings of gold in ETFs rose by 852,000 ounces to 67.907 million ounces, more than offsetting the 444,000 ounces outflow in September and the 297,000 ounces outflow in August."
ZeroHedge points to "MF Global for example, which filed bankruptcy precisely due to its hedged (?) European exposure - luckily MF was not in the business of writing CDS on European banks or else all hell would be breaking loose right now."
He applauds this Bloomberg piece which said U.S. lenders exposure to Greek debt via CDS (insurance against default) rose by $80.7 billion to $518 billion in the first half of 2011.
Too much too soon
MarketWatch: Gold could go up but platinum will go up more
OilnGold: Dont bet on it, gold could go down a bit more
Gold investing news: Lots more people could invest in gold soon - China makes gold owning easy for its citizens (opposite of what happens here).
Harvey Organ: Says that gold and silver prices were pushed down by the big short sellers - but suspects it'll have backfired (I still don't understand how the bear raid stuff works.)
There's loads of stuff in the Harvey Organ post including this from
ZeroHedge: How US banks are lying about their European exposure, an article saying that if anything else goes wrong it will test whether interconnecting deals between banks adds up to a safety net (hedge) or a bad bet (melt down).
ZeroHedge points to "MF Global for example, which filed bankruptcy precisely due to its hedged (?) European exposure - luckily MF was not in the business of writing CDS on European banks or else all hell would be breaking loose right now."
He applauds this Bloomberg piece which said U.S. lenders exposure to Greek debt via CDS (insurance against default) rose by $80.7 billion to $518 billion in the first half of 2011.
Too much too soon
But this is all too much for me. I'm still wondering how, why or when to buy more of a physical gold ETF (PHAU).
Yesterday I nearly bought some more. I didn't do it and tried to blame my broker.
But it was me - and the situation bought up very basic issues that I need to address.
Like how long can I go on deluding myself that I have a strategy?And why have I bought gold when I can't honestly answer these simple questions:
a) Is my aim to build up a stake in gold because I think the world is about to collapse?
b) If so, why don't I just put cash in it now?
c) How much of my cash am I actually talking about?
d) Once I've put it in, do I have any idea why or when I should take it out again?
But then the panic wanes a bit. I remember that I started off knowing that I know nothing and I shouldn't be terrified by other people knowing lots more than me.
I also need to remember that I've bought gold because otherwise I wouldn't bother looking at it.
But what did I learn from yesterday?
1. It's never going to be obvious when to buy and when I have bought it will feel like I made a mistake until its obvious that wasn't a mistake which could be never.
2. I've got to make up my mind if I'm pound cost averaging or not... if I am I should have bought PHAU at around 11am on October 22, a weekend but I would still have got a better price than now whether I'd bought before or after.
However, I don't really want to buy automatically because the reason I'm doing this is to force myself to pay attention.
3. So, if I'm not pound cost averaging, what am I doing? Should I be buying on dips (investing - catching falling knives?) or following trends up (trading - chasing bubbles)? I don't know. I need to do some reading!
4. Volatility - do I really need to think, every time I miss what looks like a low, that it was my last chance ever?
5. I need to stop looking for information to justify what I've done. I need to find out if I am doing the right thing, not prove that I am doing the right thing.
This all sounds like something out of a self help book! Find yourself - buy gold! Or am I already turning into Gollum?
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