PNL Personal Assets Trust - some guidance on why I own gold

There were two views on the gold price dropping down today (PHGP down 2.5%):

- on the one hand the gold bugs point to a 'paper-based' assault on the gold price last night: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-12/vicious-gold-slamdown-breaks-gold-market-20-seconds?source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n

- on the other hand the gold doubters point to the increasing likelihood of the Federal Reserve tapering off its quantitative easing. In this BullionVault piece analysts suspect more price falls with little chance of this being offset by Indian Jewellery buying or inflation picking up
 https://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-price-091220131

Sebastian Lyon at Personal Assets Trust (PNL) said in an interim management statement (August 16):

Buy or sell as gold price plummets?

Can I really make a sensible decision about whether to buy or sell now?

I've got about £1000 standing by but I'm not sure I'm aiming to buy anything yet, or sell anything.... but I might have changed my mind by tomorrow.

 My small portfolio, which now includes one share of Personal Assets Trusts (PNL), looks pretty shredded at the moment.

Odd moves price moves for ETF Securities' PHAU and PHGP gold

It's  been a while since I looked at my tiny portfolio of physical gold ETF shares (PHAU) and BlackRock Gold and  General units.

When I do I usually see the kind of thing described here -  what I've started calling a price anomaly when it probably isn't. Generally, because I've left it so long,  I've forgotten what it was I found out the last time.

Anyway, I'm doing it again but as it's near midnight on Sunday I'm sticking to the basics. 

Another odd PHAU price movement

On Wednesday 22 August 2012 the price of PHAU jumped in the morning on one  small trade when markets opened. PHGP the sterling version used by small investors didn't see the same price move.

ETF Securities replies to "spreads widen dramatically" claim

ETF Securities has replied to Gold ETF Investor's questions about spikes in the spreads (trading costs) of one of its most traded physical gold ETFs.

Figures produced by London Stock Exchange each week calculate 'time weighted' spreads. In the week ending 13 April 2012 a handful of ETF Securities products saw their spreads spike.

Those listed by Gold ETF Investor were:

PHGP: up to 1.26% from 0.14%
SGBS (ETFS Physical Swiss Gold): up to 2.41% from spreads between 0.25%-0.6%
PHSN: up to 14% up from 2.3% the week before.

ETF Securities physical metal spreads widen massively in April

click on chart to enlarge

London Stock Exchange statistics show that spreads of a popular physical gold ETF  - the ETF Securities Physical Gold £  with the LSE ticker of PHGP  - widened to 1.36% in the week between 10 April 2012 and 13 April 2012.


In the same week two other ETF Securities products also saw massive spikes in spreads. The most dramatic commodity ETF spread was ETFS Tin (PHSN) which saw its spread widen to 14.77% when it was (already quite wide) at 2.3% the week before.

Also (on the chart above) ETFS Physical Swiss Gold (SGBS) saw its spreads widen to 2.3% for the same period when they were usually between 0.25 and 0.57 in the other figures I looked at.

Odd price moves on physical gold ETFs: SGLD, PHAU and PHGP

The gold price dipped below £1000 per ounce again this morning with both ETF Securities dollar and sterling etfs dropping as the dollar index spiked (above) and stock markets bounced starting in the US, may be inspired by US gains on  G8 and talk of Eurobonds.

But this is an excuse to post some odd physical gold ETF price moves from the recent past... however it starts with another mention of the common phenomenon of Fresnillo's price jumping as it did  at the end of trading yesterday (pic below) but peculiar price leaps in gold ETFs (listed below) seem to have calmed a bit - for now at least.

Gold back over £1000 per oz - will it stay there?

As the price of gold tumbled earlier this week I mentally scrambled for the reasons why I had bought the stuff in the first place.

Yesterday and today's price rise - which took gold back over £1000 per ounce - eased my anxiety but there are still a number of issues I need to look at.

Retail gold ETF attracts 10 fold more buying than selling

As the gold price continues to fall I rather urgently need to assess my position. However some UK retail gold investors seem to be pretty clear that today presented a buying opportunity. 

The (allegedly) most popular physical gold exchange traded fund for retail investors -  the ETF Securities sterling denominated fund with the London Stock Exchange ticker PHGP -  has seen buyers spending nearly 10 times more than sellers have sold today. With £5.2 million worth of shares bought by investors compared to £650,000 worth of shares sold. (The most popular retail gold ETF? dealt with below)

(Click on images to expand them)

I bought gold today

On the London Stock Exchange it looked like Physical Gold ETFs were being bought.
The busiest was Source (SGLD) with £67 million bought vs £66 million sold.

Fear mismatch? 10 month low for Sterling gold ETF not 4 month

I suppose this should be seen as a good thing -another proper buying opportunity for gold. But the reason it's a buying opportunity is because it's scary and I'm not immune to that fear.

However there is a mismatch, the media chat about impending huge falls in the gold price is nothing like it was back in December 2011 - at least not yet - but I think it's because in dollar terms the lows still aren't below the December 28 $1,523 low.

Sterling gold falls under £1000 oz for first time since 2011

The price of gold has fallen below £1000 per ounce (oz) today the lowest its been since 2011.

Gold spot price over the last six hours

According to the gold spot price provided by BullionVault while gold was selling at just above $1,600 per oz the sterling price fell to just over £992 per oz (later under £990 as per chart above).

Sterling gold lowest since 2011: no buyers?

Gold valued in pounds Sterling fell below its lowest (closing) level this year to around $1,010 per ounce today for UK ETF investors. Despite this UK gold ETF investors were mainly sellers.

I bought gold yesterday

Despite a great deal of uncertainty about my investment rationale, I bought some gold yesterday afternoon. I did it without consulting previous agonies over action vs inaction or anything else other than the price had  fallen below a level that had caused me to think about it earlier in the day.

Should I buy more gold ETFs today?

The last time I looked (about 10.30am) I would have paid £1,019.43 including fees for 10 ETF Securities physical gold ETF shares (PHAU).

1.8% error in ETF Securities' physical gold ETFs PHAU and PHGP?

There was a near 2% drop in the price of ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) on Tuesday that didn't appear to correspond with the spot price of gold. The drop happened after a large trade of the ETF for the day (an automatic sell order  of 11,000 shares worth around £1.8 million).

iShares physical gold ETF spreads shot above 3%

Weekly ETF trading data from the London Stock Exchange show that physical gold ETFs make up the majority trading in exchange traded products and that spreads -  the difference between the buying and selling price of shares - for one of these physical gold ETFs rose above 3% at the beginning of the year.

Gold ETFs snapped-up in London on Thursday

Despite increasing fears that the gold price will fall further shares in UK physical gold exchange traded funds (ETF) were being snapped up on Thursday - with £60 million in net buying via automatic trades. After the London Stock Exchange closed the spot price of gold carried on upwards and is now trading around $1,658 or £1,056 after hitting $1641 lows earlier in the day.

Gold on Monday night 12 March

Not a very inspired go at a market report, just for my own reference. The price of gold was around $1,704 per ounce £1,089 on Monday night.

Source physical gold ETF SGLD vs PHAU - cheaper, growing fast

Today I tried a bit of research on the size of gold ETFs traded on the London Stock Exchange and on the spreads investors are likely to see (with a helping hand from Index Universe).

The process reveald a few more physical gold ETFs than I expected but most of them were pretty small compared to PHAU, GBS and Source (SGLD), although I couldn't always find their assets under management.