Gold - preparing for fresh buying opportunities?

I have not properly contemplated making any investment decisions since gold was a lot closer to $1,600. On Friday 13th of January 2012 I was waiting for further falls on Monday 16 January - hoping it would drop down to $1,605 or below.

It never happened. Gold may be down a bit over the last couple of days but it's still around $1,731.

Here's what's happened over the last week:

Meanwhile I still have about 75% of my portfolio in cash, the rest is in in Black Rock Gold and General fund. So despite the name of this blog I don't actually own any gold ETFs (PHAU) after selling them all in December.

Does this cash heavy situation mean I should fear something devaluing my pounds sterling before I get to buy any gold?

Greece could default with or without a bailout (Wall Street Journal: Greece could take the bailout money and run) and even if Greece goes smoothly attention will still turn to other eurozone problems.

 Generally, if something happens to the euro the pound gets hit too - at least it does in relation to the dollar. So while a falling euro would probably mean falling gold, it would also mean that the purchasing power of my pounds will be less, undermining the opportunity to buy US$ denominated gold. I need to work out if that's something I really need to worry about and if I can do anything about it.

(Although S&P is now threatening a further downgrade to the US as well - it also downgraded CME Group which runs commodities futures markets including gold but I've got no idea what the consequences of that might be).

Meanwhile some commentators say that stock markets have been over bought (Market watch: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/overbought-market-due-for-a-correction-2012-02-07?link=home_carousel). If something in europe or anywhere else upsets investors gold could go down too as it is still behaving like a risk asset.

For that reason I'm still not buying but I'm going to start watching a bit more closely now. Although judging by my past record that's good reason to expect gold prices to carry onwards and upwards!


Will Rhind, MD of ETF Securities in the US talks to Alix Steel on The Street. ETF Securities is still for sale but, like me, buyers may be waiting for a fall in the gold price before making an offer. Other commentators mentioned in her piece offered conflicting forecasts.

Bespoke said the U.S. dollar index was "in danger of breaking its six month uptrend" and a falling dollar could add support higher gold prices.

Meanwhile David Banister, chief investment strategist at TheMarketTrendForecast.com told The Street that gold is entering the last and final stage of its bull market. "I believe that it is a 13 year cycle and we are in the fifth and final wave pattern up," he says, which could last for 12-18 months."

Gold will lose whatever happens on Friday...

I haven't bothered cutting back any of my gold holdings because I have absolutely no idea what to expect tomorrow.

(Update: latest from Jim Sinclair said Bloomberg published an article about central bank activity to control the price of gold today. I had a quick look at Bloomberg gold related stories available for free and found this one on gold lending rates but I'm not sure if it's what he meant. Anyway it's interesting and gives context to comments about gold lending below.)

My lack of comprehension exists on almost every level. At the moment it appears that if the news is good gold will fall and if the news is bad... gold will fall... but either way gold prices will rise...

It would be nice to know even what the variables are that need to be watched, there seem to be a few. The strength of the dollar is the key but there are other bits and pieces and I have tried to work out a handful of randomly selected reports have been saying.

In this piece in The Street some of the variables affecting the gold price today were set out:

ECB cut interest rates (Good for gold? "If the rate cut is seen as helping the Eurozone, gold could rise with the euro, but if it is seen as devaluing the currency, both assets could head lower.")

ECB lent almost $51 billion to European banks for 84 days by swapping euros for dollars with the Federal Reserve. (Good for gold? If it means stress in the system that's good for gold... unless gold was lent to cover the borrowing which would mean more gold in the supply chain which would push down the price of gold - according to James Steel, analyst at HSBC.)

From Bloomberg piece on gold lending mentioned above, two other analysts:

"European banks especially are having liquidity funding problems, which does see a lot of lending of gold and that’s putting downward pressure on lease rates,” Walter de Wet, head of commodities research at Standard Bank Plc in London

“It is quite typical of this time of year that banks look to offload metal in an effort to reduce their balance sheet,” Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS AG in London,

The Euro weak, the dollar strong...
"gold quickly reversed directions after Draghi said that sovereign bond purchases would be limited... the euro tanked on the news which dragged on gold."

Mark O'Byrne analyst at GoldCore said: "If there is some kind of success declared in Europe on Friday, O'Byrne says it might result in gold prices falling in the short term, but longer term any action won't solve the debt crisis."

I don't know who Michael Paulenoff is but he's got a much better CV than me and he sounded like his charts were telling him lots of different stories too - but it's interesting.

"There still remains risk of a negative reacton to the Euro-zone Summit plan, which could send gold into another nosedive next week. That said, gold has climbed $45 off of Tuesday's pivot low at $1701.98, a rally that exhibits bullish form, which if accurate provides clues that a new upleg could be in progress."

I still haven't got around to investigating this charting stuff but aim to at some point soon.

Forbes offered more charting witchcraft talk via Jim Wyckoff:

"Bulls do still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Bulls’ next upside technical breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,767.10. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at $1,725.00 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,705.70 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5." (According to expofutures.com "Wyckoff’s Market Rating System is based on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being the most bearish market rating and 10 being the most bullish market rating. Thenumber 5 would be a neutral rating. And it is not uncommon to see fractions used – like 1.5, 3.5, etc. – if conditions warrant."

And: "Importantly, markets that have been in sideways trading ranges for a while – i.e., non-trending and then move to either a rating of 5.5 or 6 on an upside price move, or to 4.5 or 4 on a downside move are the most critical to monitor. It’s at these ratings levels that most trading “set ups” occur, based on Jim’s trading philosophy and experience. But remember, the market has to have been trading generally sideways beforehand.")

As far as I can tell this means that gold bulls need gold to get a closing price above $1,767.10 - last week's high. The bears hope gold will fall below $1,700. But no one knows who or what is going to happen whether the news is good or bad... which probably means nothing much will happen.

Wyckoff suggests Draghi's comments meant nothing much would happen tomorrow as they effectively "threw cold water on hopes there would be some big announcement on fixing the EU debt crisis coming out of the EU summit meeting late this week."

So gold fell today. This Google chart shows that any gains made later in the day by UK gold ETFs will have been neutralised by another jump in the dollar index - here seen against GLD which is still trading. I don't know what set that off, )

My two gold investments look like this...

But the BlackRock fund will certainly be down now. It would have been priced at midday before share prices started falling on the FTSE 100. Whatever that price was, it doesn't seem to update on the Hargreaves site until midnight. But judging by the share price movements of its top 10 holdings, it will be down in spirit if not in actual price....