Wednesday, 7 March 2012

Greece and gold on Thursday 8 March

National, regional and global events are difficult to understand in their own right let alone slot into a gold price forecast.

This BBC explanation of the Greek debt crisis says the crucial deal needed with private bond holders is due this (March 8) evening. If less than 90% of bond holders agree to it then we should expect further delays and extra drama as Greece contemplates enacting a compulsory version of the deal - which could trigger default insurance policies (credit default swaps). But something has to happen soon as a big payment is due on March 20.

This morning (1am) gold was around $1,684 per ounce and £1,071 in sterling. This slight gain over Tuesday's and Wednesday's lows was down to positive feelings about the Greek deal. Reuters reported Bill O'Neill, partner at commodities investment firm LOGIC Advisors, saying: "Gold is up because there is growing evidence that there will not be a hard default in Greece."

Will that sentiment hold through tomorrow?

In the same Reuters piece Suki Cooper at Barclays  Capital said: "Although the macro environment is still very gold-supportive, in the nearer term it's going to be the physical market and whether that enables prices to consolidate enough so that investment demand can retake the reins."

Most analysts quoted in this BullionVault piece also say gold is still more likely to fall further.

It quotes UBS analyst Edel Tully saying physical buyers needed "in size... otherwise further downside seems inevitable". Axel Rudolph at Commerzbank saying "further weakness to be seen in the coming months, taking gold towards the $1,600/$1,500 region."

Today total buys for PHAU on the London Stock Exchange were around £8.3 million and sales were £13.3 million compared to yesterday's £13.6 million-worth of buys and £23.1 million of sales.

Before the outcome of the private bond deal investors will have the MPC rate setting and the ECB rate and press conference. And on Friday there  are the US non farm payrolls.

Brad Zigler on increasing correlation between stocks and gold.

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