Is the gold "spot price" real?

I don't own gold I own the 'spot price' of gold

After taking a look at the prospectus for my ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) shares I'm fairly sure that I'm not really the owner of gold. Yes the shares are backed by real lumps of the stuff in a vault but the chances are that I’ll never get my hands on it.

In reality the gold backing my PHAU shares is more like collateral - it’s what I have a right to if all else fails. Before that happens though, the prospectus for ETFS Physical Gold says my shares are valued at something called the “spot price” of gold (ETFS said that PHAU tracks the loco London spot market).

So what is this “spot price”?

On the face of it, the construction of the gold price appears a bit random. Adrian Ash at UK online gold and silver market BullionVault told me that the price is not standardised, which means it’s not like tracking the share price of Marks and Spencers for which there is a single price quoted through the London Stock Exchange.

So, in the case of gold, the source of the price is not set in stone. Ash says that the data feed that supplies the free online "spot" chart at BullionVault, where he is the head of research, is not likely to be the same as the data feed that supplies, say, the chart at Canadian bullion dealers Kitco and the prices may be slightly different.

This is because the companies that provide the data feeds can pick and choose the sources of the data. These will be dealers who have agreed to pass on their live buying and selling prices. However Ash points out that any difference in price will be minimal because a dealer who deviates far from the global price will either have everyone knocking on their door… or no one.

In general though, the prices that make up the core of the global spot price come from the big banks listed as the “market makers” for the London bullion Market Association – centre of the world's wholesale physical trade.

These include the likes of JPMorgan, HSBC and to be an official ‘market maker’ an institution promises to offer prices at which they will buy and sell gold at all times during the hours of London trading.

But these banks are global so when trading shuts in London it shifts over to New York.

Wherever the trading is going on, the prices offered are being fed to the likes of Bloomberg and Reuters and other data providers who then compile gold “spot prices” for their clients. To do this they take the mid points between the buying and selling prices offered by each market maker and find the average.

Ash said: “So take note – any "spot" price data you see will fail to show any widening of the spread between buying and selling prices during strong volatility.” So investors should look carefully at the difference between the price they are being offered and the gold spot price.

There are further complications to the foundations of the “spot price” and the extent to which it describes the price of physical gold. To start with, the London market makers are not the only sources of data or the only influence on the gold price.

But during London trading hours they are the biggest players and the deals being done in London are for metal and are supposed to be completed within two days. But that’s not the case in other markets that influence the gold price. Ash said that when trading shifts to the USA the biggest gold market open for business becomes the New York futures market – where promises to deliver gold at a specific date are traded, but the vast bulk of contracts are in fact settled for cash, not metal.

Influences like this are somehow factored into the data feeds for “spot gold” prices supplied to traders.

In contrast to the apparently laissez faire price setting – where there can be minor discrepancies – there is no flexibility about the gold that is bought and sold in the loco London spot market.

This is entirely standardised with approved refiners, vaults and traders. If the gold is in the system it is considered good for delivery and if it leaves the system it isn’t allowed back in without severe checks.

Conclusions: Supply and demand, investor fear, interest rates and the value of the dollar are the engines that drive the gold price. But the gold price itself is the speedometer and it seems sensible to check that it's actually measuring what you want it to measure.

The fact that it doesn’t include spreads - the difference between the price at which gold is bought by market makers and the price at which they sell it – essentially means that gold is will not change hands at this price.

It may be useful to find out more about when and why spreads widen and whether the changes are large enough to let them influence an investment decision.

Also, does anyone monitor the differences between gold price data feeds, particularly in times of crisis? Are there any technical dangers in terms of the gold price?

Gold ETF bestseller for retail investors?

The three most heavily bought shares (by value) were the same as the three most heavily sold shares by investors using Hargreaves Lansdown on Friday. These were Barclays, Lloyds and the iShares FTSE 100 exchange traded fund.

The ETFS Physical Gold ETF (PHAU) was one of the few shares on the top twenty list that didn't also make a showing on the list of shares being dumped at high speed by investors.

On Thursday Hargreaves Lansdown published an interim management statement which said that the number of clients opening accounts had increased but added that it wasn't expecting much action from them: "Whilst uncertainty remains about sovereign debt and default and a possible second recession, it is increasingly likely the retail investor will feel they need more pounds in their pocket and may continue to defer new investment decisions."

It's hard to tell if their buying and selling lists illustrate this prediction, or whether retail investors see gold as a kind of cash.

Also on Thursday the Sterling denominated PHGP was the gold ETF of choice (At close on Friday the spreads for PHGP were bid 10,382 offer 10,385 or 0.028% which were narrower than the spreads for the dollar denominated PHAG $164.09 and $162.3 or 0.12% - I was under the impression it was usually the other way around.)

Check LSE not broker for $ price of PHAU gold ETF shares

In the last post Hargreaves Lansdown (HL) told me what I'd paid in dollars for my ETF Securities Physical Gold shares (PHAU) because it wasn't on my contract note. I then asked them whether I needed to get in touch with them every time I traded to find out what I'd paid in dollars.

One of their traders emailed me saying that for now the details of how much I'd paid in dollars would not be available via my HL account but they were looking into adding them.

In the meantime I was told that I could find the particulars of my trade, priced in dollars, on the London Stock Exchange website.

So I took a look and yes, the details of all trades for one day are available for every share that is dealt on the exchange. An investor will need to be able to identify their own trade. I'm hoping I can do so just by knowing the number of shares I bought and the time I did the trade (and hope that no one else had done anything too similar recently).

How do you find these dollar prices? You can simply type PHAU into the search at the top of the LSE site and its page will come up - half way down you'll find a box showing the five most recent trades.

If you want to see all the trades for that day then adjust the controls above the displayed trades.

It should look like this:

What happened when I bought PHAU gold ETF?

I paid £907.78 for 8 PHAU shares (ETF Securities Physical Gold ) at 11.20am on 22 September 2011. This physical gold exchange traded fund is valued in dollars. When I bought it my pounds were converted into dollars by my broker Hargreaves Lansdown and used to pay for the shares. But the price I paid in dollars was not mentioned anywhere on the contract note from Hargreaves Lansdown and neither was the exchange rate my pounds were converted at.

This meant that I could not see how much I had actually paid for the gold and how many dollars my pounds had bought in order to make that payment.

I'm a novice as a gold ETF investor but I would have thought an investor should have this information, so I asked for it. Hargreaves Lansdown staff were helpful but, at first, weren't sure I'd be able to get an answer. However I did get a reply by email saying that all the figures had been supplied in sterling because all the trades were settled in sterling.

But Hargreaves also added that the "dollar price for your purchase of eight shares in ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) was $172.734 per share, which converts to £111.9787."

That's an exchange rate of 172.734/111.9787 which equates to $1.54 per £1 which is pretty much what I worked out the day before yesterday.

I'm not yet sure how useful it is for me to know the dollar value of the gold or the dollar value of my pounds. But it feels like I should know this and be able to evaluate its usefulness for myself.

ETF Securities seems to agree. It doesn't say much about currency in PHAU's prospectus other than this pretty obvious point:

"Currency: Bullion prices are generally quoted in US dollars and the price of Metal Securities will be quoted on the London Stock Exchange in US dollars. To the extent that a Security Holder values Metal Securities in another currency, that value will be affected by changes in the exchange rate between the US dollar and that other currency."

The impression I got from Hargreaves Lansdown was that the conversion into pounds and dollars was automatic - I wasn't sure if ETFS was responsible but I think it is Hargreaves that does this bit

I must have got the wrong end of stick and maybe it's done by Hargreaves at the moment of buying or selling - but I don't know.

The other mystery is the spread which didn't look at when I bought the shares - there was quite a short space in which I had say accept the price I was offered and I didn't think to look. So I don't know, if I had decided to sell my PHAU shares straight away, how much would I have lost just on the difference between the price I bought at, and the price at which I could sell back to market makers.

I took a look a the PHAU page on the London Stock Exchange but this said the spread at market close on Wednesday was a massive 3.2% (a bid of $156.5 and an offer of $161.5) and I think it must have been talking about something else.

I had a look at the spread this morning at 8.28am on the Hargreaves Lansdown page for PHAU and it showed a much lower spread: the bid $161.42 and $161.66 offer on Hargreaves Lansdown's site. (Maybe the LSE figures were daily highs and lows)

Apparently the spreads for the £ pound denominated gold ETF - which goes under a PHGP ticker - are wider. I'll have a look later, but I'm not yet clear on how to make knowledge of spreads useful to me.

I'm thinking that there will be times when spreads widen and when they narrow and I want to trade when they are narrow - but I don't know if these changes are significant enough for me to bother worrying about them. And, because I didn't look when I bought the shares, I'm not sure if the bid and offer price were shown - and if that was in £ or $ - but I'll have a look.

At the moment I am still in the process of understanding what I've bought but at least it's distracting me from the near 10% loss since I bought it.

When big banks like gold more than silver?

(Click on the chart to enlarge, the vertical axis is percentage of gold and silver futures markets) Sad hours plugging numbers into excel that probably don't mean anything. This chart takes data from the US futures market regulator's weekly report on the positions held by the largest traders in the gold and silver futures market. (Commitment of Traders report)

In the red it's the net short postions of the 8 largest traders in the gold (dotted red line) and silver (solid red line) futures markets. This measures how much of these metals banks/commodity traders are selling. This is measured as a percentage of the market (CFTC explanation) from the part of the report that measures trader concentration. Both the dotted lines represent gold, both the solid lines represent silver.

When the solid lines are above the dotted lines the banks are selling larger portions of the gold market than the silver market. The latest data shows that the biggest traders/banks on the markets have dropped their gold shorts and built up their silver shorts to such an extent that the relative market shares in the silver and gold futures markets have changed. This probably means nothing as the two markets are separate. If it does mean something I don't know what it is.

The big black arrow points to July 2009. That was the last time that the biggest 8 traders swapped their relative market shares in gold and silver. So, in July 2009 the eight biggest banks/traders were selling about 55% of futures contracts in the gold and silver markets but with the gold short positions falling and the silver shorts rising.

The start: PHAU

This is a very dull attempt to work out what I've gone and done. I bought 8 shares of ETF Securities' physical gold exchange traded fund (PHAU) for £895.8296 at 11.20am on 22 September 2011. The cost of the transaction was £11.95 and I did it through Hargreaves Lansdown.

According to Google Finance, at 11.20am on 22 September, PHAU shares were trading at about $172.7 each. From my HL receipt I don't know what I actually paid in terms of dollars, only in pounds and that was £111.9787 for each share. Assuming what I paid was somewhere near the $172.7 per share I think I got an exchange rate at about $1.54 to £1.

According to Google Finance, the pound ended the 22 Sept trading at around $1.535 so this looks about right (Basically I bought on a day when the pound was particularly weak against the dollar so my pounds didn't buy so much. But then the strong dollar was the reason that the gold price fell... I'm hoping the fact that the price of gold fell further than the value of the pound made it vaguely worthwhile buying point. But these are all concepts I still have to get my head around).

This evening (a balmy but apocalyptic feeling October 3) my HL account said that my PHAU investment was down 7.61% and valued the 8 shares at £838.71. Considering the buying price had been £895.8296, the fall works out at around 6.3%. The other 1.3% is the £11.95 fee.

If I wanted to sell now, it would cost me another £11.95 in fees so, in effect, I am really down 8.91% on my original investment. I do not have to take the conversion fee from pounds into dollars into account as that, I hope, can only be what the £838.71 figure is based on - the value of my dollar investment in pounds.

Although I own a dollar denominated ETF I cannot keep dollars in my pound denominated Hargreaves Lansdown account so, as far as I can tell, I have no choice in the timing of the conversion from dollar into pounds.

So my PHAU shares - denominated in dollars but valued in pounds - have fallen by 6.3% (from £895.8296 to £838.71). Over the same period the dollar denominated ETF shares has fallen from $172.7 to $162.07 - a fall of 6.15%.

The difference between the fall of 6.3% in pounds and the 6.15% in dollars should be accountable somewhere. I'd imagine it would be a combination of the exchange rate and the spread between the price I bought at (bid) and price I could sell at (offer).

If the discrepancy is due to the value of the dollar I would expect the value of the dollar to have fallen by 0.15% against the pound over this period. On 22 September I was given an exchange rate of $1.54 to £1.

According to HL the exchange rate on my ETF is $1.5459 but Google Finance has the current rate around $1.5575. Even if the later rate is the one being used to calculate the value of my PHAU shares, it does not account for the 1.15% discrepancy over the last 7 trading days.

So the difference will also have something to do with the spread between the buying and selling price of the shares. At close today, according to the London Stock Exchange, the bid price was $161 while the offer price was $164.15 - that's a 1.95% spread, more than I was expecting. (It turns out that the LSE's spread data is talking about something else - Hargreaves has more realistic looking spreads on its factsheet for PHAU) It may not have been that wide when I bought my shares, and I don't know what price I paid for my ETF shares in dollars when I originally bought them.

The fact that the price at the time on the exchange gave a mid price of $172.7 doesn't tell me what I paid for it and unfortunately this price doesn't seem to be shown on my receipt.

Another point of possible interest is that my deal was done on Plus Markets, not the LSE. I don't know if that's significant. On 23 September I bought £1000 of the BlackRock Gold and General fund too. I am still working on my investment strategy - basically I'm blowing in the wind pretty much at the moment.