tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-49274331255259372272024-02-22T23:43:14.060-08:00Gold ETF InvestorUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger112125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-12265797718459958172013-12-23T02:32:00.001-08:002013-12-23T02:38:30.649-08:00Decision time?My gold investing hasn't gone too well so far!<br />
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I think I need to remind myself why I have been buying the stuff. Either my reasoning will still feel valid and stop that dull pain I get when I remember I own this plummeting-priced asset... or I it will appear wrong-headed and I will need to re-evaluate what I am doing.</div>
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One of my reasons for buying gold was the possibility that it could rise in value if my income and my home fall in value. An attempt, I suppose, to turn my job, home and investments into an 'absolute return' fund - which sounds horrible and ambitious at the same time.</div>
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I didn't think of doing this until things were bad which meant I bought gold when everyone else was worried about the same thing. So it was expensive. Now people seem to be less worried and the price has fallen.</div>
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On this front the questions I ask myself are whether: </div>
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1. <b>Will gold act as an insurance in bad times?</b> My understanding is that hedging of any kind is very difficult and hedges are one/two dimensional while liabilities are three/four dimensional. Whether gold will perform as a hedge against property prices and job insecurity and inflation in London will depend on how gold is used by other investors, how they see it - and there are lots of reasons why investors might not see it in the same light that once they did: <a href="http://www.metal.com/newscontent/55937_will-gold-bounce-back-in-2014">http://www.metal.com/newscontent/55937_will-gold-bounce-back-in-2014</a>. But I suspect that even if I had only the purest unadulterated facts before me, the answers to these questions would not be clear.<br />
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Where does this leave me on the action front? I am a slow mover - as can be seen by my efforts on this blog - I miss boats and bandwagons. The slowness is unlikely to change which, I think, is why I need to be wary of accepting a falling price as a prevailing view on gold and sell. I will be forever behind the curve. But if I wait and see if the price recovers, what is my justification? Do I believe it will recover quicker than other assets? No, I just think I will never be able to answer those questions without having to rely on a whole new set of narratives, analysts, commentators, products and judgements. I think I would rather stay and watch the carnage here and hopefully learn from it (I think I want to buy some more soon - which makes me think I must have got a mental problem! But I think that was always my position I just hadn't realised it - that I would stay and watch this whether the price fell or rose? It looks like it.) </div>
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2. <b>Should I be trading it to soften the price falls? </b>I don't think I have the time, energy or desire to trade on a daily basis. If the time comes when I think I understand a situation I might do something like trade but at the moment I only get that desire to trade when things look bad, which is probably not a good time to do anything rash. Also trading removes the hedge.<br />
From what I've seen, trading requires a different kind of knowledge. It is a more coal-face activity which revolves around finding acceptable answers/justifications for short-term activity. But having said this I don't invest a regular amount at a regular time so may be I trade anyway. I just take a look and if I have some money, and I feel it's not a very bad moment, I put the money in. May be I should do it more mechanically.</div>
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3. <b>Is wanting to know about gold a reason to invest? </b>I used to write about it and I found it interesting on several levels. But I don't write so often but I am still interested. I thought owning some would help me pay attention. It did for a while, but my eyes got a lot bigger than my stomach! If I didn't know what to do I put £250 ('free of charge') into BlackRock Gold and General and my holding in this fund grew disproportionately. It is now the hardest hit of my holdings. </div>
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I also bought a very few Personal Assets Trusts shares. This was an attempt to diversify. I also think it remains faintly true to my interest in gold but more defensively - its manager Sebastian Lyon does still rate gold as a longterm bet.</div>
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Having written this I feel a little less worried. People are behaving as if the danger has passed and I don't feel it yet. I've lost a lot but I think I'm prepared to lose more because, even if everyone else is right to ditch gold, I don't think I'll lose out by sticking to building an understanding of a defensive or hedging position (one based around understanding gold). Perhaps the only consolation will be that it will be cheaper to experiment from now on!<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-50002431745601946242013-12-15T09:41:00.000-08:002013-12-15T09:41:23.908-08:00Sebastian Lyon on gold and BBC on the FedPersonal Assets Trust: <a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/personal-assets-tst---pnl-/rns/half-yearly-report/201311211642576716T/">http://www.investegate.co.uk/personal-assets-tst---pnl-/rns/half-yearly-report/201311211642576716T/</a><br />
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"Recent weakness in the price of gold has been unwelcome, but just because an insurance policy does not pay out for one year in thirteen it does not mean we should not hold it. The opportunity cost of holding gold is now low. Negative real interest rates are here to stay. Beggar-my-neighbour policies, reminiscent of the 1930s, instigated by central banks to keep their currencies competitive will lead to an on-going debasement of paper currencies. The rigging of financial markets by central banks will not end well. Gold, therefore, is not a short term trade but long term portfolio insurance."<br />
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I don't know if I should be buying something.<br />
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Just listening to this too: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/">http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/</a> Simon Jack<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-692354529227920932013-10-14T07:58:00.001-07:002013-10-14T07:58:14.176-07:00Response to Goldman Sachs slamdunkI read this today and thought I'd keep a link for future reference:
<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/1735872-which-side-of-goldman-sachs-is-right-about-gold?source=email_rt_mc_focus_0">http://seekingalpha.com/article/1735872-which-side-of-goldman-sachs-is-right-about-gold?source=email_rt_mc_focus_0</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-29958919371996077102013-09-12T07:08:00.001-07:002013-09-12T07:08:27.014-07:00PNL Personal Assets Trust - some guidance on why I own goldThere were two views on the <a href="https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1378999800000&chddm=2555&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=LON:PHGP&ntsp=0&ei=v8UxUvCeL8eYwQOg5gE">gold price dropping down today</a> (PHGP down 2.5%):<br />
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- on the one hand the gold bugs point to a 'paper-based' assault on the gold price last night: <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-12/vicious-gold-slamdown-breaks-gold-market-20-seconds?source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-12/vicious-gold-slamdown-breaks-gold-market-20-seconds?source=email_rt_mc_body&app=n</a><br />
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- on the other hand the gold doubters point to the increasing likelihood of the Federal Reserve tapering off its quantitative easing. In this BullionVault piece analysts suspect more price falls with little chance of this being offset by Indian Jewellery buying or inflation picking up<br />
<a href="https://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-price-091220131"> https://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-price-091220131</a><br />
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Sebastian Lyon at Personal Assets Trust (PNL) said in an <a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/personal-assets-tst---pnl-/rns/interim-management-statement/201308161700039244L/">interim management statement</a> (August 16):<br />
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Economic growth remains fragile and the corporate earnings cycle appears to have peaked some time ago. The move up in stock markets, over the past year, has been the result of a reduction in risk aversion rather than any meaningful rise in earnings, with a consequent increase in valuations. Buoyed by greater confidence in the abilities of central bankers, momentum has fed on itself. While good economic news is viewed positively, bad news is also good news because it is likely to lead to renewed market intervention. This paradox cannot last forever.<br />
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The US stock market, on a cyclically adjusted price earnings multiple of 24x, is 50% overvalued compared to its long term average. Deteriorating fundamentals coinciding with high markets at record profit margins are an unattractive and risky combination. Rushing into rising stock markets, four years into a rally, is driven by the need for short term returns and is not a path we will take. On the basis that profit margins and stock valuations revert to the mean, now does not seem to be an opportune time to be adding to equity allocations.<br />
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Short-term missed opportunities are the price we pay for dependable and sustainable wealth protection and growth over the long-term. Complacency is an enemy of successful investing and so is panic. Risks are now rising, notwithstanding the benefits of the printing press. We wait patiently on the side-lines for the market to offer us better value.<br />
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The portfolio's inflation protection in gold and index linked bonds has hurt recent performance. These will have crucial roles to play against the force that rarely preannounces itself. While it is painful to be punished for prudence, we are confident that short term falls in the price of these assets will not lead to falls in their long term value. The risk of higher inflation over the medium to long term remains and this makes the protection provided by these assets worth having.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-2102498353829453582013-08-06T11:18:00.000-07:002013-08-06T11:18:24.952-07:00BlackRock Gold and General 6% spreadAccording to Hargreaves Lansdown the bid offer spread on BlackRock Gold and General fund was 858.10p to buy, 810.00p to sell - that's a spread of nearly 6 per cent - I'm not sure what it usually is. <br />
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I've invested another £250 which should go through at around midday tomorrow.
Depending on what happens in the day, I'll also buy another 10 shares in PHAU.
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I thought that looked like a lot but I think there's some catch - which I think I looked at before - charts below from 2011 and before - and I'm looking for what I've written on this before. I don't think investors get hit by it in full but I can't remember why not.... I'll look at what I've written on it before.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-23225802259979553242013-08-02T08:07:00.003-07:002013-08-02T08:07:45.599-07:00Cash in waiting I put more money in my account this morning. But I am now down about £2,000.<br />
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I now want to make a judgement about buying more gold. I think I'm clear about why I own it but it's not a conviction and <span style="text-align: center;">I have to remind myself why I'm doing it otherwise I get confused.</span><br />
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My position is that I see it as a safety net which may or may not work.<br />
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I seem to forget this every time the price moves. Instead I think I should either increase how much gold I own or worry about how much money I have lost as a result of this investment (if that is what it is).<br />
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I also start thinking about quicker returns to reassure myself. I ponder over how I can increase my exposure ahead of price rises... or if buying more now would be a mistake if prices fall afterwards.<br />
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Anyway, if I want to own some gold for safety, it is now cheaper than it has been since I started buying it.<br />
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<span style="text-align: center;">If this cheapness persists hopefully it will be because the global economy, particularly the US, is doing better. </span><br />
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<span style="text-align: center;">This would be good for my life but it would mean that the value of the gold I own could carry on downwards for a while.</span><br />
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This morning the gold price fell by nearly 2%. Here is a Bloomberg report from this morning <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-02/gold-bears-dominant-again-as-u-s-growth-quickens-commodities.html">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-02/gold-bears-dominant-again-as-u-s-growth-quickens-commodities.html </a><br />
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Later in the day gold gained after non-farm payrolls were worse than expected: Bloomberg again: <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-02/payrolls-rose-162-000-in-july-u-s-jobless-rate-falls-to-7-4-.html">http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-02/payrolls-rose-162-000-in-july-u-s-jobless-rate-falls-to-7-4-.html </a><br />
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Before this I transferred some cash into my account in preparation for more buying - may be more BlackRock Gold and General or more PHAU or neither. I've made most of my losses on the miners but lots of people are saying this is where the gains will come (here's an interesting and reassuringly technical sounding discussion with Ron Struthers: <a href="http://goldinvestingnews.com/36918/ron-struthers-are-gold-equities-on-the-cusp-of-an-upswing.html?utm_source=Resource+Investing+News&utm_campaign=ee6ef8aaf1-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f83d87db0f-ee6ef8aaf1-248729517">http://goldinvestingnews.com/36918/ron-struthers-are-gold-equities-on-the-cusp-of-an-upswing.html?utm_source=Resource+Investing+News&utm_campaign=ee6ef8aaf1-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f83d87db0f-ee6ef8aaf1-248729517</a>).<br />
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However, the fact that I own these things probably contradicts my original safety net argument.<br />
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Still, hopefully this experience is helping me arrive at a more coherent view on what it is that I am trying to do.<br />
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This was the price I could have got for the usual 10 shares - and now I'm wondering if I should keep the cash I pay constant, rather than the amount of gold I buy constant. I'm not sure what the difference will be.<br />
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Anyway, I didn't buy anything....<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-87057245760645154712013-07-23T05:54:00.000-07:002013-07-23T05:54:08.704-07:00Indian gold tax effects <a href="http://www.hebbainvestments.com/">Hebba</a> Investments <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/1561512-indias-gold-exports-slump-the-governments-unintended-consequences?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0">writing at Seeking Alpha</a> about India's war on gold and the unintended consequences - a more interesting story than most.<br />
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Watch the Rupee strength against the dollar because:<br />
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"depending on the amount of gold imported through unofficial channels, this policy may not even solve the CAD (current account deficit) problems experienced by the government because rupees will still be exchanged for other currencies to buy gold - it just will not be registered with government officials. One of the things investors should do is to keep an eye on the rupee-dollar exchange rate, if it continues to weaken that may be a sign that government policies are not working and large amounts of gold are still entering India through illegal imports.<br />
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In the meantime I haven't made any <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/gold-investment-should-my-goal-posts-be.html">changes to my portfolio</a> - some of the losses have lessened and I haven't got the money or the will to add any more at the moment.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-87291856276314035372013-07-15T02:23:00.002-07:002013-07-15T02:23:19.417-07:00Gold investment - should my goal posts be moved?Crumbs! This is what my gold investment portfolio looks like this morning.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKGDk4d-iPASuuJ0n1DIOaEkg77nEKdWScZhkixiJrEy8C88wVEQOtEMikmtl2ikbEGuR3hj2b5M4IlzhlzGaAL3ZSun3XtfgufjLxq4El2pGwti2SJ5JXP5VqbadNGmYv3rdWI6BZvUo/s1600/15+july+2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="100" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKGDk4d-iPASuuJ0n1DIOaEkg77nEKdWScZhkixiJrEy8C88wVEQOtEMikmtl2ikbEGuR3hj2b5M4IlzhlzGaAL3ZSun3XtfgufjLxq4El2pGwti2SJ5JXP5VqbadNGmYv3rdWI6BZvUo/s320/15+july+2013.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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I knew it would be bad and I'm not sure if this is worse than I expected.<br />
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It's not a reassuring signal to myself that I know what I'm doing. Did I buy gold for the right reasons and have they changed?<br />
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Did I buy gold to make money? Or did I buy gold to protect myself?<br />
I think mainly the latter, which if it had happened would have led to a bit of the former (although I imagine the value of everything else I own would be less secure).<br />
Have either of these goals changed - do I have less of a need to protect myself?<br />
Yes I think so - I don't feel like the financial crisis is really dead.<br />
Is gold still top of my list of assets to own to achieve this?<br />
That's a harder question. That's not just because of the state of my account above. But I think yes it is still a good option for me.<br />
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I know I don't really understand how gold will behave in high inflation or deflation or in circumstances where interest rates rise due to fear rather than growth (or vice versa). But then I don't really understand how other assets will behave in these circumstances either.<br />
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One thing that's stopping me from jumping to any conclusions about my gold investment is this lack of knowledge.<br />
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I'm reading <a href="http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/">Steve Keen</a>'s 'Debunking Economics' and while I can't claim to understand all of it, it has helped me see that there is a lot of room for other people to make mistakes too.<br />
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His view is that Keynesians have muddled up uncertainty and risk in a way that <a href="http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes">Keynes (of the barbarous relic quote)</a> would not have done.<br />
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He quotes Keynes: 'Knowing that all our individual judgement is worthless, we endeavour to fall back on the judgement of the rest of the world which is perhaps better informed. That is, we endeavour to conform with the behaviour of the majority or the average. The psychology of a society of individuals each of whom is endeavouring to copy the others leads to what we may strictly term a conventional judgement.'<br />
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This could mean a lot of things for a gold investor. But I suppose it will depend on their view of the information they have about the gold market - about their view of whether investing in gold is really an unconventional judgement.<br />
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At the moment, to me, it appears to be a less complicated strategy and, if it fails to make me money hopefully it's because the world is a happier place.<br />
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I would like to know more about whether it could fail in circumstances where it should provide protection.<br />
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I don't know if I will buy any more - if I have some spare cash I might do it - or put something into BlackRock Gold and General .<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-41330549185185932782013-04-15T17:36:00.000-07:002013-07-15T02:26:13.963-07:00Buy or sell as gold price plummets?Can I really make a sensible decision about whether to buy or sell now?<br />
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I've got about £1000 standing by but I'm not sure I'm aiming to buy anything yet, or sell anything.... but I might have changed my mind by tomorrow.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPN2MiKBCB9Ego8pRhPwqGGkYiHPeSBZjSjE63ujdM2SQgw9pqQOLu06wW2zzhLBxGvwjhDdz1J_I_9cWQF5SvUBj30p1XlEgooJupqMTF7dvu2em-epcAw3M1aGDeVLqSxdKsB6aSqvk/s1600/hargaccapr2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPN2MiKBCB9Ego8pRhPwqGGkYiHPeSBZjSjE63ujdM2SQgw9pqQOLu06wW2zzhLBxGvwjhDdz1J_I_9cWQF5SvUBj30p1XlEgooJupqMTF7dvu2em-epcAw3M1aGDeVLqSxdKsB6aSqvk/s320/hargaccapr2013.png" /></a></div>
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My small portfolio, which now includes one share of Personal Assets Trusts (PNL), looks pretty shredded at the moment.<br />
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As mentioned before, the worst perfomer, BlackRock Gold and General, was a kind of <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/another-identity-crisis-at-gold-etf.html">accidental investment</a>.<br />
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Now physical gold losses have racked-up too I need to remember why I made this investment in the first place and decide if really want to cancel these positions.<br />
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On April 10 <a href="http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-04-10/industries/38412923_1_gold-prices-ounce-average-gold-price-forecast">Goldman Sachs analysts said</a> the gold price would fall to $1,450 by the end of 2013 and carry on falling through 2014 to $1,270 an ounce. I didn't know what to do then - so I didn't do anything.<br />
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And the last time I looked gold was trading at £1,351. I still don't know what to do but I'm not as worried as used to be when I was looking at this stuff all the time.<br />
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I have tried a couple of times to work out what I am doing and why, but due to no longer looking very often it feels a bit like reinventing the wheel.<br />
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The first attempt looked at whether I should take action frequently: <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/gold-price-falling-on-monday.html">http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/gold-price-falling-on-monday.html</a><br />
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The next tried to assimilate the advice I got: <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/identity-crisis-at-gold-etf-investor.html">http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/identity-crisis-at-gold-etf-investor.html</a><br />
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And that was the nearest I got to working out how to get through times of indecision... not very far.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6AO3VfZoaUBLRTO7-XEtMlUjpimgohn5r8dtVijVMmJWftbN_pX8XSaFQneSUPqcGXnG25xaT1nNuZ4gj6baQ-SRwpMx7ayjAzB7zDeG1DFOB-lwUV0SvUZm4JZYG0cIxlK4Eg2emkL8/s1600/phauphgpapr152013.png" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6AO3VfZoaUBLRTO7-XEtMlUjpimgohn5r8dtVijVMmJWftbN_pX8XSaFQneSUPqcGXnG25xaT1nNuZ4gj6baQ-SRwpMx7ayjAzB7zDeG1DFOB-lwUV0SvUZm4JZYG0cIxlK4Eg2emkL8/s320/phauphgpapr152013.png" /></a><br />
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I don't think anything has changed in my rationale - which was originally more to do with educating myself than making money (or losing it for that matter).<br />
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It may be another 10 days or another 10 years before I can get the same price for these shares.<br />
But how much gold will be left as fees chip away on the gold they contain?
I'll have to work it out.
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-86779753911280882172012-09-30T17:21:00.000-07:002012-09-30T17:24:25.024-07:00Portfolio: not much changed <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxGGGi-UybABolQ5wMpqjfC40CYUS2t6OqXh4guI0t57ivoTk8mcnOGTATECauSrED9Rtv-pNDzvveoMOuBpJOF2yG21KELj1grfcPZcvHqr4WIDeq-wlxXppo3pAWqphzLlJegxrPs8E/s1600/hargacc12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="155" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxGGGi-UybABolQ5wMpqjfC40CYUS2t6OqXh4guI0t57ivoTk8mcnOGTATECauSrED9Rtv-pNDzvveoMOuBpJOF2yG21KELj1grfcPZcvHqr4WIDeq-wlxXppo3pAWqphzLlJegxrPs8E/s320/hargacc12.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Not much has changed since a couple of weeks ago - September 18 2012 (Have I made money yet?) - and although my account is up a little, I still haven't properly worked out if I'm up on when I first invested as selling out and buying back in again added some costs!<br />
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I've got a tiny bit I could invest, I need to do some revision before making any decisions though.</div>
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I've also failed to work out what sort of exposure Black Rock Gold and General has to the South African mining problems.<br />
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In an August <a href="https://www.blackrock.co.uk/literature/fact-sheet/blackrock-gold-and-general-fund-factsheet.pdf">factsheet</a> the fund said that it was losing out because regulations mean it can't hold more than 10% in any one asset and some of the big miners make up more than 10% of the index it tracks: "
Gold advanced 3.3% and silver was up 8.2% over the course of the month as investors looked for ways to hedge their portfolios against the potential inflationary impacts of any forthcoming stimulus. The Fund’s structural underweight to larger cap gold miners Barrick, Newmont and Goldcorp was a material detractor to relative performance as these stocks gained strongly as general investors sought more liquid gold producers in the face of the advancing gold price. It should be noted that, due to UCITS regulations, the Fund is meaningfully underweight these names; it cannot match the benchmark weightings in these stocks as they are in excess of 10% (for example, Barrick Gold is over 16% of the FTSE Gold Mines Index).<br />
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On South Africa: "The Fund’s exposure to off benchmark South African platinum miner Impala Platinum was also a source of underperformance as the stock lagged due to the industrial unrest in the South African platinum industry. On the positive side, our underweight position in AngloGold was helpful for relative performance as the South African based
company was also dragged lower due to investor concerns over the impact an escalation of the unrest in South Africa
could potentially have on its operations. It should be noted that the Fund is underweight South Africa at the aggregate level."<br />
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I wasn't sure if the weighting related to where companies were listed or where they had operations. I still don't know the answer but I looked at some of the top ten investments and none of the ones I looked at had anything there: Randgold, Goldcorp, Newcrest etc. <br />
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I'm not sure what the stake in Evy Hambro's dad Peter Hambro's firm - Petropavlovsk - is but BlackRock's total holding <a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205281120092227E">fell to under 11% in May 2012 </a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-79753183767369629072012-09-30T16:21:00.000-07:002012-09-30T17:24:11.784-07:00Odd moves price moves for ETF Securities' PHAU and PHGP gold <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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It's been a while since I looked at my tiny portfolio of physical gold ETF shares (PHAU) and BlackRock Gold and General units.</div>
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When I do I usually see the kind of thing described here - what I've started calling a price anomaly when it probably isn't. Generally, because I've left it so long, I've forgotten what it was I found out the last time.</div>
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Anyway, I'm doing it again but as it's near midnight on Sunday I'm sticking to the basics. </div>
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As a sterling investor I check the price of my dollar denominated PHAU shares by looking at the sterling denominated PHGP physical ETF. </div>
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And every now and again something odd seems to happen: here to PHGP with a sharp price rise - I don't know if the trades shown below the spike caused it or brought it back down as I didn't see it on the day and LSE data on individual trades only seems to be available on the day itself (the day in question was Wednesday 26 September 2012 at around 4pm UK time)</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWuXyzA544uLOBDT0nMwekKxHKKWdjv68xJIl2-NyKCoT_lFKdsT0_f2wQAM_q8R-9JEgCRVCFFLmbqD-ukDjT4eAtD7ZA8L8lfiRcRhktGAzHsCqHpzj_IsKrX5NO5vOn2kW7Ai7WrCc/s1600/phgp1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWuXyzA544uLOBDT0nMwekKxHKKWdjv68xJIl2-NyKCoT_lFKdsT0_f2wQAM_q8R-9JEgCRVCFFLmbqD-ukDjT4eAtD7ZA8L8lfiRcRhktGAzHsCqHpzj_IsKrX5NO5vOn2kW7Ai7WrCc/s320/phgp1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
On the same day a little while earlier something similar happened to PHAU.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl15Tdxt90tzb58lCYbn7KHW5Ol2uQx7m08nVFoaXr3VBR4WiJ2FPK6PXoZePertuWf0xkLArvrlOsfHol0QGtR1a5lBPIQKNnGgR07VRClVVNriGNtHgU9SG9BqJnUdSC805IcUvQByE/s1600/phgp2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl15Tdxt90tzb58lCYbn7KHW5Ol2uQx7m08nVFoaXr3VBR4WiJ2FPK6PXoZePertuWf0xkLArvrlOsfHol0QGtR1a5lBPIQKNnGgR07VRClVVNriGNtHgU9SG9BqJnUdSC805IcUvQByE/s320/phgp2.png" width="299" /></a></div>
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The two moves looked like they could be vaguely related.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv3XTwZBiHRhPu5m2b7abkHWPXcEm_dvpihvKte-uf8Laa3u8tpXKFUcY6xI_KebQRalNizrFIAYR_GGq7-BI-9WUS4K7u4My9LJbpZT-oWPxlw3tCV1ZZI0j2_pbpgbO1Gzz5o_Id-jA/s1600/phgp3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiv3XTwZBiHRhPu5m2b7abkHWPXcEm_dvpihvKte-uf8Laa3u8tpXKFUcY6xI_KebQRalNizrFIAYR_GGq7-BI-9WUS4K7u4My9LJbpZT-oWPxlw3tCV1ZZI0j2_pbpgbO1Gzz5o_Id-jA/s320/phgp3.png" width="236" /></a></div>
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But they didn't seem to happen to any other physical gold ETFs. I'm still not sure about the significance of any of these moves - there probably isn't any....<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9hLC2V-84oRbTTVuGcilJhfYo1zvaEMOjNXEh0wMOLN9c2kRRbxdqPBnxa2DsKPa9MQdvtEHyMtEqx_DsgdMAmRamlFQxn60K3n6YLiW0_gNXAu9X06QOjlFgu8AU-d_V-aJOXh3f2H0/s1600/phgp4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9hLC2V-84oRbTTVuGcilJhfYo1zvaEMOjNXEh0wMOLN9c2kRRbxdqPBnxa2DsKPa9MQdvtEHyMtEqx_DsgdMAmRamlFQxn60K3n6YLiW0_gNXAu9X06QOjlFgu8AU-d_V-aJOXh3f2H0/s320/phgp4.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-75426332733052956112012-09-18T17:26:00.001-07:002012-09-18T17:26:27.583-07:00Have I made money yet?My Hargreaves Lansdown account only has two holdings: ETF Securities physical gold ETF (<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON%3APHAU&ei=fwVZUOjREcWDwAP8Lw">PHAU</a>) and BlackRock Gold and General fund.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXPMB4E-KXktYFXOyHMfyuS8ey7hyLho0LCTfneYYaEdPBpG07PR8IsfSsjim4UqI9FWvTcFfNmbQKqFP9DlPWfcQAMwktmTtrDM5eFqe1IykbZPjEZ3bzozivzLwW3S0epx4tHJHCKzM/s1600/hargaccsept182012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="60" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXPMB4E-KXktYFXOyHMfyuS8ey7hyLho0LCTfneYYaEdPBpG07PR8IsfSsjim4UqI9FWvTcFfNmbQKqFP9DlPWfcQAMwktmTtrDM5eFqe1IykbZPjEZ3bzozivzLwW3S0epx4tHJHCKzM/s320/hargaccsept182012.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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As far as I can remember this is the first time since I started investing in gold and gold related shares that I have seen it in positive territory:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxQ-UrHg-MR3XjDPdi5NwgaaNBesnAy7WSgBC1CQvAz0WRItBdgq0bjyDvNRUqFrmtgdAP3Dh-ihJk4eRfNN45twgutK1HatWE59wNDrWGn6rAJImzfIAxVibBO28TKhgEMPh_0J0qIfQ/s1600/blackrockggsept182012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxQ-UrHg-MR3XjDPdi5NwgaaNBesnAy7WSgBC1CQvAz0WRItBdgq0bjyDvNRUqFrmtgdAP3Dh-ihJk4eRfNN45twgutK1HatWE59wNDrWGn6rAJImzfIAxVibBO28TKhgEMPh_0J0qIfQ/s320/blackrockggsept182012.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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The BlackRock fund is still down a but I have held it longer than the physical gold ETFS and so it would be misleading to see it as a less successful investment.<br />
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Basically I <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2011/12/ive-sold-all-my-physical-gold-etf.html">sold all of my PHAU shares back in December 2011</a> (at a £250 loss) and couldn't make up my mind <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/holding-on-and-not-buying-yet-bad-idea.html">whether to buy in January</a> and didn't own any again <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/i-bought-gold-before-it-dropped-below.html">until March when I paid £1066 for 10 shares</a> and then again on April 4 2012 - <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/i-bought-gold-yesterday.html">10 shares for £1009</a> and then another <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/i-bought-gold-today.html">10 shares for £978 on May 9 2012</a>. All together my ETF holding is now up £146 so I haven't regained the original loss.<br />
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What I might try and work out is whether I would have lost less if I had simply held on and bought more.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmfXLi7lfll2ojgWthB4Po3MTEbTGNzI2GsFAzd9bUQv_PQMVQGv7gNYPKNlA9twmksPTEfoSWkeaSb5vx49q1oVN8UltkBtu6e6IMy7wu31_s93GNuMLWTPXn71CApzK4JPo9ag_YATQ/s1600/bullvgbpsept182012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmfXLi7lfll2ojgWthB4Po3MTEbTGNzI2GsFAzd9bUQv_PQMVQGv7gNYPKNlA9twmksPTEfoSWkeaSb5vx49q1oVN8UltkBtu6e6IMy7wu31_s93GNuMLWTPXn71CApzK4JPo9ag_YATQ/s320/bullvgbpsept182012.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-87006894565640798912012-08-22T17:07:00.001-07:002012-08-22T17:07:27.059-07:00Another odd PHAU price movement <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoqj0MAKc4z85RyQvboaLreEhCsVlLPt8rbQdI3LLgu52iQCsMCQqVBt2ri9FA0SiViwTZKUu6sZHJnDa-Ej6VyANA6gOSgrUnJ3vE7fUsIcpFID0lYxHkWF8wjAOXK1R3KZ0MhICmOno/s1600/phau+price+anomaly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="123" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoqj0MAKc4z85RyQvboaLreEhCsVlLPt8rbQdI3LLgu52iQCsMCQqVBt2ri9FA0SiViwTZKUu6sZHJnDa-Ej6VyANA6gOSgrUnJ3vE7fUsIcpFID0lYxHkWF8wjAOXK1R3KZ0MhICmOno/s320/phau+price+anomaly.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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On Wednesday 22 August 2012 the price of PHAU jumped in the morning on one small trade when markets opened. PHGP the sterling version used by small investors didn't see the same price move.</div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-77162632585664151972012-07-22T16:42:00.002-07:002012-07-22T16:43:41.574-07:00All quiet at the Gold ETF sand castle this summer holiday?<br />
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There may be some calm in the gold markets before a (positive) storm according to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/9418742/Gold-bugs-bank-on-QE3-to-ride-to-the-rescue.html">people quoted in the Telegraph</a> but summer holidays can be pretty dangerous. </div>
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Gold ETF Investor has been pretty slow recently as I've got a new job but h<span style="background-color: white;">opefully I'll get a chance to look at it more closely soon.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIcPgqA2xEYUkuW054BDBMmvATID1PJ0acV0gXurpAtww1ezgc8oJ0Yqqqv6VlLRYAxFYv2mJnc2nY_nk894LcSalV2cgyWSOnnmnWHu2aXbz0NXFkMZEaQGV4lg9QFROb8ZaGgfZVh4k/s1600/hargacc22.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="81" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIcPgqA2xEYUkuW054BDBMmvATID1PJ0acV0gXurpAtww1ezgc8oJ0Yqqqv6VlLRYAxFYv2mJnc2nY_nk894LcSalV2cgyWSOnnmnWHu2aXbz0NXFkMZEaQGV4lg9QFROb8ZaGgfZVh4k/s320/hargacc22.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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In the meantime I'm wondering if I should be buying more BlackRock Gold and General - down 20% again after a brief rally. </div>
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</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-68637082240866616502012-06-19T03:45:00.002-07:002012-06-19T03:45:20.000-07:00Another identity crisis at gold ETF Investor - fund or ETF?This blog has <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/identity-crisis-at-gold-etf-investor.html">had an identity crisis before</a>.<br />
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There was another one last week: why do I invest in a fund rather than an ETF when it comes to gold mining companies? I only asked myself this question after seeing a <a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/funds/gold-miners-exchange-traded-funds-59324">piece on gold miner ETFs in Moneyweek</a> - the inconsistency hadn't occurred to me before!<br />
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(The ETFs discussed in Moneyweek were iShares <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=IE00B6R52036ZZGBXETF2">SPGP</a>, ETF Exchange's <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=IE00B3CNHG25IEUSDETFS">AUCO</a> ($), <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=IE00B3CNHG25ZZGBXETF2">AUCP </a>(£) and RBS's <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=LU0259322260LUGBPETFS">GOLB</a> - the last of these were synthetic/swap-based and all of them track indices. An investor like me has to know such things as whether the mining firms in the index hedge their gold - in which case they won't benefit so much from a rise in gold price. <span style="background-color: white;">So, one reason why I don't fancy the gold miner ETFs at the moment is that a certain amount of knowledge is needed about the construction of an index, the construction of the product, the industry, the way companies operate that I do not have. That, though, is a retrospectively applied reason.)</span><br />
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I think that actual reason I haven't invested in them is simpler:<br />
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I invest in the <a href="http://www.blackrock.co.uk/intermediaries/products/featured-products/blackrock-gold-and-general">Black Rock Gold and General fund</a> because I can make a number of small investments that cost -as far as I can tell - 'nothing'. There are higher management charges but they appear to be less that what it would cost to make these small investments into an ETF. There are disadvantages in funds too, a big one being that I can only buy and sell once a day and at an unknown price. <br />
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<span style="background-color: white;">Since I started this blog I have invested in the BlackRock fund seven times.</span><br />
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The first investment was £1000 on 23 September 2011 when the unit price was 1,608p and then in lots of £250 at irregular dates after that:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqTsEip6OHWgIFE11I4n2X9MnzQn9xEmzEcHpkYx0j4m_4ajCZi0HOnr4c0KFJdbrR1wLoqIokmEXHCHh49Bo_Eyh7xh6NhxSvucnPpjgkf8mhA3Hxmm-VJ0GmVtPOr2Gezt2agMpWNeM/s1600/blackrockggjune19.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqTsEip6OHWgIFE11I4n2X9MnzQn9xEmzEcHpkYx0j4m_4ajCZi0HOnr4c0KFJdbrR1wLoqIokmEXHCHh49Bo_Eyh7xh6NhxSvucnPpjgkf8mhA3Hxmm-VJ0GmVtPOr2Gezt2agMpWNeM/s320/blackrockggjune19.png" width="320" /></a>24/11/2011 - unit price 1,503p<br />
25/11/2011 - unit price 1,484p<br />
23/12/2011 - unit price 1,441p <br />
21/03/2012 - unit price 1,438p<br />
05/04/2012 - unit price 1,318p<br />
11/05/2012 - unit price 1,200p<br />
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The total investment in the fund is now £2,500 and it would have cost me nearly £80 to have done this using ETFs. But this low cost has led me to owning more than I meant to. I have generally bought units when I couldn't make my mind up about spending £11.95 buying more physical gold ETF shares.<br />
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The investment was down 12.5% while the ETFs were level, although there's <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2011/12/ive-sold-all-my-physical-gold-etf.html">a bad history</a> not shown there!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJWKLSK_gDtI48uX_5hZ-nt1VyULSkN3eBM42zNLb00aOmlkNFXVKhuB_WHkkYwJMowUMcaxg5GLvLd8s0HkjL_ab7XDtVkpaAsqASib03gxp6hl4_W1xbYWRa0rko4OAjrRr44mPMfOw/s1600/hargacc.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="84" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJWKLSK_gDtI48uX_5hZ-nt1VyULSkN3eBM42zNLb00aOmlkNFXVKhuB_WHkkYwJMowUMcaxg5GLvLd8s0HkjL_ab7XDtVkpaAsqASib03gxp6hl4_W1xbYWRa0rko4OAjrRr44mPMfOw/s320/hargacc.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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However, this doubt has raised a more fundamental question. Why don't small time investors like me have access to gold mutual funds (which invest in gold ETFs) which would allow us to invest more frequently and in smaller lots? They have gold mutual funds in India. Is there something wrong with them?<br />
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I got the pic below from OneMint which provided an <a href="http://www.onemint.com/2011/08/24/sbi-gold-fund-review/">interesting review of an indian gold mutual fund</a> called <a href="http://www.sbimf.com/SBI_Gold_Fund/sbi_gold_fund.html">SBI Gold Fund</a>.<br />
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<a href="http://www.onemint.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Ways-of-owning-gold.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="189" src="http://www.onemint.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Ways-of-owning-gold.png" width="320" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-42049268028124426002012-06-06T06:53:00.001-07:002012-06-06T06:56:51.967-07:00ETF Securities replies to "spreads widen dramatically" claimETF Securities has replied to Gold ETF Investor's questions about spikes in the spreads (trading costs) of one of its most traded physical gold ETFs.<br />
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Figures produced by London Stock Exchange each week calculate 'time weighted' spreads. In the week ending 13 April 2012 <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/etf-securities-physical-metal-spreads.html">a handful of ETF Securities products saw their spreads spike</a>.<br />
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Those listed by Gold ETF Investor were:<br />
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<a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=JE00B1VS3770ZZGBXETC2">PHGP</a>: up to 1.26% from 0.14%<br />
<a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=JE00B588CD74JEUSDETCS">SGBS</a> (ETFS Physical Swiss Gold): up to 2.41% from spreads between 0.25%-0.6%<br />
<a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=JE00B4L22R36JEUSDETCS">PHSN</a>: up to 14% up from 2.3% the week before.<br />
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All of these are ETF Securities products and PHGP is popular physical gold ETF used by UK retail investors.<br />
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A spokesman for ETF Securities said that the firm's calculations for the same period were different to those of the London Stock Exchange, a lot lower at:<br />
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(PHGP) 0.16%<br />
(SGBS) 0. 50%<br />
(PHSN) 2.15%<br />
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The spokesman offered this explanation: "Thanks for your email. According to our calculations, the weekly spreads for these products were 16, 50 and 215 basis points, respectively, for that particular week.<br />
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"We suspect the issue is linked to the automated calculation methodology of the LSE.<br />
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"Where a bid price is not available, even for a few moments, the LSE’s algorithm will automatically calculate the spread between the offer price and zero, which obviously generates a temporary spread of 10,000 bps, or 100%.<br />
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"If this happens frequently enough within a given time period, the spread may appear to be inflated.<br />
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"You may want to contact the LSE for more information if any of this is unclear. I thought you may also like to see the following article in IndexUniverse which addresses this topic:<a href="http://www.indexuniverse.eu/europe/opinion-and-analysis/7940-mind-the-gap.html">http://www.indexuniverse.eu/europe/opinion-and-analysis/7940-mind-the-gap.html</a>"<br />
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I read the article and it did address the point but didn't claim to get to the bottom of the problem or how badly it might affect retail investors in the UK. <a href="http://www.indexuniverse.eu/eu-about-us.html">Paul Amery</a>'s article identified similar problems with iShares ETFs during the 'flash crash' last year and discussed the findings of Australian regulators.<br />
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His investigation also showed that the spreads of products trading on the London Stock Exchange had been exaggerated by the issue of bid prices falling to zero- just as ETF Securities points out. This raised the question of why market makers hadn't been offering prices when they were (it appeared) legally obliged to do so.<br />
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In the piece Amery said there were two technical get-out clauses for market makers: <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/traders-and-brokers/rules-regulations/change-and-updates/stock-exchange-notices/2011/n0111_attach1.pdf">Rule 4102 and Rule 4110</a>.<br />
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However, in the example explored by IndexUniverse, the LSE ruled out the use of rule 4110 and wouldn't comment on 4102 - possibly implying that 4102 was the culprit. But it seems unlikely that Rule 4102 could apply in this case of one physical gold ETF.<br />
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The rule requires at least 10% of an ETF's underlying securities to have no "firm" price. This is not likely when the underlying 'security' is 100% physical gold and none of the other physical gold products seemed to be having this problem.<br />
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<b>Another big problem.</b><br />
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Amery's article starts off by pointing out that Australian regulators (ASIC) had spotted problems for retail ETF investors and were worried that they were paying over the odds.<br />
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ASIC said: “In some cases ASIC has found examples of ETF prices quoted by online stockbrokers that are significantly above or below the value of the assets that the ETF holds. The risk is that you might pay far more than the ETF’s assets are worth, or sell ETFs at a price far below the value of their assets.”
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In other words they weren't checking the value of their ETFs against the values being offered by some market makers.<br />
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I don't know if this is evidence of exactly this problem occuring with PHGP: <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/18-error-in-etf-securities-physical.html">http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/18-error-in-etf-securities-physical.html</a><br />
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ASIC suggested that investors check the price offered against the net asset value (NAV) of the fund. Unfortunately there is no NAV provided for PHGP because it is essentially PHAU with a currency conversion.<br />
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It means that investors have to check the dollar version looks right and then make a currency calculation. The platform I use to buy PHAU - Hargreaves Lansdown - tells me how much I have paid in pounds sterling but shows neither the dollar value of the shares being sold or the conversion rate. Meanwhile an investor has 15 seconds in which to work this out for themselves.<br />
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<b>Moves during market volatility.</b><br />
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The hitches with spreads in gold ETFs seem to happen when the gold price is moving sharply. So, in theory, the issue may have occurred again when gold prices surged on Friday. We'll see when the figures are released later this week.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-64474295106444831472012-06-03T08:01:00.002-07:002012-06-03T08:10:59.816-07:00Very odd price crashes for gold stocks on Friday on London Stock Exchange<div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6VpmENC3jERHfC86vEaQ8Dm3IYexzTQF0jr9U9oLlJYcrBrTvNxsB6Tm7EbjKCX3gHQDD9Aum9EwUQ_UO3TBxLn6W_YpzBMrw19w9Ejak5mmssldDmeVtHNtEWhVV5fBdsh1FqVClnlE/s1600/goldstocks1june2012.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6VpmENC3jERHfC86vEaQ8Dm3IYexzTQF0jr9U9oLlJYcrBrTvNxsB6Tm7EbjKCX3gHQDD9Aum9EwUQ_UO3TBxLn6W_YpzBMrw19w9Ejak5mmssldDmeVtHNtEWhVV5fBdsh1FqVClnlE/s1600/goldstocks1june2012.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Prices drop in final trades</td></tr>
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Despite Friday's massive rises for precious metals the shares of a number of gold and silver miners trading on the London Stock Exchange saw their closing prices drop sharply.</div>
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Fresnillo (<a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=GB00B2QPKJ12GBGBXSET1">FRES</a>) shares closed down more than 4% after a one-off trade. Randgold Resources (<a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=GB00B01C3S32GBGBXSET1">RRS</a>) and African Barrick Gold (<a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=GB00B61D2N63GBGBXSTMM">ABG</a>) also saw their prices plunge from daily highs. </div>
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This may be normal after a volatile day but it still looks odd. These kinds of moves have been noted on this blog before (<a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/why-does-fresnillo-price-jump-at-end-of.html">here</a> and <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/odd-price-moves-on-physical-gold-etfs.html">here</a>) showing that the share price of Fresnillo tends to jump at the end of trading days. </div>
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LSE trading data shows that different kinds of deals were responsible for the various price moves seen here.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-xy6Qm5TQtkcZC1oZYpaXeuHspzmc5QGWE4_cyZkQ6JJ35aQrVTSegY4ACTd30ihlMwwzWp6b3VJVVnfjzjsSalYpO1rXXKfpK3vJTH2Z6vELFIIOfMPFntlNFUaPXsTqxyHe08lygEk/s1600/goldstocksfresjune1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-xy6Qm5TQtkcZC1oZYpaXeuHspzmc5QGWE4_cyZkQ6JJ35aQrVTSegY4ACTd30ihlMwwzWp6b3VJVVnfjzjsSalYpO1rXXKfpK3vJTH2Z6vELFIIOfMPFntlNFUaPXsTqxyHe08lygEk/s320/goldstocksfresjune1.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">After prices gained all day the falls came at the end</td></tr>
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The move in ABG was triggered by a "negotiated trade"<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxawGjd5DVGWyXQzpOjsAbb8VtTqPqieviyupkscV2IT-rJEk0TCVfA-TNnvqiw0LkwhoMqzgWNP6uaLJRUIdiQT65JZz9wRRaxOcDAHNzR2YdgBadfR4t3xPJHS5PHNdiGirdIXO90bY/s1600/manip1abg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxawGjd5DVGWyXQzpOjsAbb8VtTqPqieviyupkscV2IT-rJEk0TCVfA-TNnvqiw0LkwhoMqzgWNP6uaLJRUIdiQT65JZz9wRRaxOcDAHNzR2YdgBadfR4t3xPJHS5PHNdiGirdIXO90bY/s320/manip1abg.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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The Randgold Resources fall was the result of deal titled "OTC trade immediate publication"<br />
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The Fresnillo falls were caused by another negotiated trade.<br />
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These price moves don't affect me but if they happened in the middle of the day they could have done if I was buying or selling products, like funds, that use share prices to value their units. On Friday, when I looked at my portfolio, my physical gold ETF shares were showing a gain for the first time in ages but the <a href="http://www.blackrock.co.uk/intermediaries/products/featured-products/blackrock-gold-and-general">BlackRock Gold and General fund</a> was still down 18%.</div>
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This didn't surprise me as the fund finds its price once a day at midday which is also when the units are bought and sold. So on Friday the price being offered was set at midday <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/06/01/gold-miners-surge-as-their-metal-shines/">before gold miners across the world saw big gains on the back of the US jobs report</a>.</div>
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So I checked a portfolio of companies from BlackRock's top ten investments (a Google Finance tool that I haven't mastered) to see how much the fund might have gained but there was no gain. It was level, despite companies like Randgold Resources making gains of up to 9% in other markets. </div>
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These across-the-board price drops look so uniform that I have forgiven myself for thinking that they me be orchestrated. They probably aren't but I will be asking the LSE and whether it can be sure that the price drops are not linked to other products that might use the pricing on the LSE.</div>
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In other words if this odd event happened at midday when BlackRock evaluates its fund, how would it affect an investor like me? </div>
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And would it be illegal to put in a huge BlackRock Gold and General fund buy order and then sell small amounts of Fresnillo, Randgold (or any other miner the fund holds) shares at knock down prices at midday. How difficult would it be for someone to do it?</div>
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</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-81646104196766625352012-05-31T08:03:00.001-07:002012-05-31T08:05:19.329-07:00ETF Securities physical metal spreads widen massively in April<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuhlj-lCMrIK-6tFYK1A9TdEbczIWZtRf6IZyasRYNBZlWSvfwZcjdDKsWGnhNmuUKveSjLjPJV_aCmVFt7gdQhDqkH49inbT5Mxet_0u3DEba18mYh_rBAxOlJr5JBYwNHF24hvX2GJE/s1600/spreadsmay30.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuhlj-lCMrIK-6tFYK1A9TdEbczIWZtRf6IZyasRYNBZlWSvfwZcjdDKsWGnhNmuUKveSjLjPJV_aCmVFt7gdQhDqkH49inbT5Mxet_0u3DEba18mYh_rBAxOlJr5JBYwNHF24hvX2GJE/s320/spreadsmay30.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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London Stock Exchange <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/statistics/specialist-issues/etfs-etps/etf-etp-weekly-13042012.pdf">statistics show</a> that spreads of a popular physical gold ETF - the <a href="http://www.etfsecurities.com/cslgb/etfs_physical_gold_gb.asp">ETF Securities Physical Gold £ </a> with the LSE ticker of <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/ETPs/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=JE00B1VS3770ZZGBXETC2">PHGP</a> - widened to 1.36% in the week between 10 April 2012 and 13 April 2012.<br />
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In the same week two other ETF Securities products also saw massive spikes in spreads. The most dramatic commodity ETF spread was ETFS Tin (PHSN) which saw its <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/statistics/specialist-issues/etfs-etps/etf-etp-weekly-13042012.pdf">spread widen to 14.77%</a> when it was (already quite wide) at <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/statistics/specialist-issues/etfs-etps/etf-etp-weekly-05042012.pdf">2.3% the week before</a>.<br />
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Also (on the chart above) ETFS Physical Swiss Gold (<a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=JE00B588CD74JEUSDETCS">SGBS</a>) saw its spreads widen to 2.3% for the same period when they were usually between 0.25 and 0.57 in the other figures I looked at.<br />
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The spread is the difference between the buying and selling price offered by market makers as a percentage of the share price. The LSE statistics give a 'time weighted' picture explained here: "The way they calculate them is as a time-weighted average of the spread between the best bid and best offer, tick-by-tick, on the exchange over the week, using the whole continuous trading period. PHGP typically has wider spreads than PHAU as it incorporates a currency conversion component, but both ETCs are pretty liquid."<br />
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However the chart above shows that these different spreads seem to specific to products, not currency.<br />
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There was a slight rise in the spreads of PHAU, the dollar denominated physical gold ETF to 0.1% when it was usually around 0.05%, still a 100% jump.<br />
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But that's nothing compared to what appears to be a near 900% increase on PHGP's usual spread around 0.14%.<br />
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I don't know if the LSE figures are right but I've asked ETF Securities to comment.<br />
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However I'm not holding my breath.<br />
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As the chart above shows iShares' physical gold ETF (SGLN sterling again) spreads spiked to 3% in January. When I asked for a comment I was told "The team is looking into this now" on 3 April 2012 and then "We are still looking into this, will come back as soon as possible" on 14 May 2012. So it's obviously a very difficult question....<br />
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Past questions for ETF Securities resulted in "we're a bit snowed under" (that one was about the <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/18-error-in-etf-securities-physical.html">big one-off spikes in PHGP prices</a>).<br />
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May be they'll get back to me this time.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-57610507572616914872012-05-29T04:32:00.002-07:002012-05-31T03:55:22.128-07:00(Update) Drugs vs gold in Peru - how illegal is gold getting?The front page of last week's <a href="http://www.mining-journal.com/">Mining Journal</a> has a story titled: "<a href="http://www.mining-journal.com/production-and-markets/mining-experts-call-on-peru-to-fight-illegal-gold">Mining experts call on Peru to fight illegal gold</a>"<br />
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The report came from Peru-based <a href="http://www.macroconsult.com.pe/">Macroconsultant</a> and could be compared to a <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/bbc-gold-is-bigger-threat-than-drugs-in.html">report form the BBC </a> about gold over-taking drugs as the commodity of greatest interest to criminals.<br />
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The report said one in five ounces of gold from Peru were illegal but said that government efforts to tackle the problem should focus on the entire supply chain with the report's author Elmer Cuba saying: "It should take advantage of the existence of information on merchants and exporters of gold, which do not exist for the drug trade."<br />
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The scale of the problem in Peru has seen illegal <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/illegal-gold-miners-riot-peru-180307146.html">gold miners take on police in pitched battles</a>. Here's a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15829730">BBC video about the problem in Columbia</a>.<br />
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Unrest and <a href="http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2012/05/31/mining-companies-facing-peruvian-difficulties?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+resourceinvestornews+%28Resource+Investor%29">fear also surrounds legitimate mining firms</a> particularly <a href="http://www.newmont.com/our-voice/post/military-mine">Newmont</a>'s operations in the Peruvian region of Cajamarca and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xstrata">Xstrata</a> in Espinar.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-48532234864939317002012-05-22T02:12:00.003-07:002012-05-22T02:15:07.554-07:00Odd price moves on physical gold ETFs: SGLD, PHAU and PHGP<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4sqrztk_sWEqC1m9iUIiK8B0YLlHwMKaJfy1HbAxx8Wgtzl8p4TAewrFpRCQswOHeIitmY2TapgjkdscMwcSW0O9bg04sXyirltfPYNfQROqeaGYJeB9RaGb4HZ_gSV8YdneXRX8WoKY/s1600/dollarindex.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4sqrztk_sWEqC1m9iUIiK8B0YLlHwMKaJfy1HbAxx8Wgtzl8p4TAewrFpRCQswOHeIitmY2TapgjkdscMwcSW0O9bg04sXyirltfPYNfQROqeaGYJeB9RaGb4HZ_gSV8YdneXRX8WoKY/s320/dollarindex.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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The gold price dipped below £1000 per ounce again this morning with <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1337700600000&chddm=1533&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=LON:PHAU&cmptdms=0&q=LON:PHGP&">both ETF Securities dollar and sterling etfs dropping</a> as the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:IND/chart">dollar index spiked</a> (above) and stock markets bounced starting in the US, may be inspired by US gains on <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE84K05F20120521">G8 and</a> talk of <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/eurobond-clash-set-for-eu-summit-2012-05-21">Eurobonds</a>. <br />
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But this is an excuse to post some odd physical gold ETF price moves from the recent past... however it starts with another mention of the common phenomenon of Fresnillo's <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/why-does-fresnillo-price-jump-at-end-of.html">price jumping</a> as it did at the end of <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1337644738551&chddm=511&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=LON:FRES&ntsp=0">trading yesterday</a> (pic below) but peculiar price leaps in gold ETFs (listed below) seem to have calmed a bit - for now at least.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYk5iHCFq6c4LNy7z1K65qpyU0FCtCVJ0GbFSVRmf01hOJml4_UhW7MA3dm86-MfOS4wmeYC5amtj2b3g9YS8ZPlqppv0Te78KpS4zkqd-DgoA2b1jhSH7kQmdd101paoVKINVWO1OqX4/s1600/fresgoogle.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYk5iHCFq6c4LNy7z1K65qpyU0FCtCVJ0GbFSVRmf01hOJml4_UhW7MA3dm86-MfOS4wmeYC5amtj2b3g9YS8ZPlqppv0Te78KpS4zkqd-DgoA2b1jhSH7kQmdd101paoVKINVWO1OqX4/s320/fresgoogle.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Fresnillo's share price rose from 1321p to 1364p per share (3.2%). Trading data from London Stock Exchange show that the higher prices were paid as a result of a "negotiated trade".<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5ce2X4e8s5dUU4tfW_ZAtTSCNdZte3xdYavCai1NIoAkWHtwZWr9TXtkiakHHu5aRdAhYIgc1XNVpzaFpJPiZZAXHgR3SmxzCXzdo1WQdKG3i2TdBF84EXoJMrQJKMa8WO1Dr2JtDEJI/s1600/fresmay20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5ce2X4e8s5dUU4tfW_ZAtTSCNdZte3xdYavCai1NIoAkWHtwZWr9TXtkiakHHu5aRdAhYIgc1XNVpzaFpJPiZZAXHgR3SmxzCXzdo1WQdKG3i2TdBF84EXoJMrQJKMa8WO1Dr2JtDEJI/s320/fresmay20.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Here are some of the more odd physical gold ETF price jumps in addition to <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/18-error-in-etf-securities-physical.html">those already mentioned</a> on ETF Securities physical gold ETFs PHAU and PHGP.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNLUP8e1YhBHVt7yuYzXHs41wrzTTIqyP54R04-c25DsvnL8gaHlev-xeudThP7rWy1BnhG_2LTkQPTJCj_2GgWHvBFjNRTEdVyoMhUclh2WIj_MEuF-cdUlmWzpyw-XvayCOfnTblxns/s1600/phgpthurs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="115" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNLUP8e1YhBHVt7yuYzXHs41wrzTTIqyP54R04-c25DsvnL8gaHlev-xeudThP7rWy1BnhG_2LTkQPTJCj_2GgWHvBFjNRTEdVyoMhUclh2WIj_MEuF-cdUlmWzpyw-XvayCOfnTblxns/s320/phgpthurs.png" width="320" /></a></div>
On Thursday 3 May 2012 at around 3pm the price of <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1336091732216&chddm=511&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=LON:PHGP&">PHGP jumped </a> more than 2% and this was confirmed by trading information from LSE which showed one trade of 5 shares going through at the higher price.<br />
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<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1336092440867&chddm=511&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=LON:PHGP;LON:SGLN&cmptdms=0;0&q=LON:PHAU&">None of the other ETFs I looked at</a> made similar moves. SGLD, GBS or PHAU.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG40-Jl9DFMCJQ3y_L6JWuUq8-P0KbU2Znp9ymDU0STyQdtrZ8ZRwXrEWHqPy9FR4PuZz42TNGDYLJbCsMViJN94wqI6Axjaz7iVnlBefe5g95PkiO3DybZgRUyZKEcXojkEUphfwFiP8/s1600/sgld.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="94" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG40-Jl9DFMCJQ3y_L6JWuUq8-P0KbU2Znp9ymDU0STyQdtrZ8ZRwXrEWHqPy9FR4PuZz42TNGDYLJbCsMViJN94wqI6Axjaz7iVnlBefe5g95PkiO3DybZgRUyZKEcXojkEUphfwFiP8/s320/sgld.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Then there was this from Source's <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?fourWayKey=IE00B579F325IEUSDETCS">SGLD</a> when its shares <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1335306821628&chddm=1533&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=LON:GBS;LON:SGLD&cmptdms=0;0&q=LON:PHAU&">opened up much higher than its peer</a>s:<br />
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On April 17 both of ETF Securities' dollar and pound denominated physical gold ETFs ( PHGP (£) and PHAU ($)) <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1334872326783&chddm=1533&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=LON:PHAU&cmptdms=0&q=LON:PHGP&">saw their prices jump</a> after trading but in opposite directions.<br />
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These price moves did not seem to be replicated in the <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1334876654013&chddm=1533&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=LON:IGLN&cmptdms=0&q=LON:SGLN&">sterling and dollar physical gold ETFs provided by iShares</a>.<br />
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Comparing ETF Securities' more liquid PHGP to the iShares' SGLN shows PHGP's price jumping. Unfortunately I didn't manage to get the corresponding data from LSE.<br />
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During those days Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) also saw a big deviations from the pack <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1334872326783&chddm=1533&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=LON:PHAU&cmptdms=0&q=LON:PHGP&">at around 4pm on 18 April</a><br />
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(http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1334872326783&chddm=1533&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=LON:PHAU&cmptdms=0&q=LON:PHGP&)<br />
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I still haven't worked out why these odd price movements happen despite asking ETF Securities, LSE and a market maker. Despite assurances that there's nothing wrong. Apparently any fool with a grasp of the order book system operated by LSE should know this - sadly I still don't get it.<br />
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<br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-80048296388268358402012-05-18T07:31:00.003-07:002012-05-18T07:34:05.901-07:00Gold back over £1000 per oz - will it stay there?As the price of gold tumbled earlier this week I mentally scrambled for the reasons why I had bought the stuff in the first place.<br />
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Yesterday and today's price rise - which took gold back over £1000 per ounce - eased my anxiety but there are still a number of issues I need to look at.<br />
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The convention is that responsible investors should understand themselves and their circumstances before investing (<a href="http://www.which.co.uk/money/savings-and-investments/guides/the-beginners-guide-to-investment/are-you-ready-to-invest/">Which? guide</a>).<br />
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There are questions I should have asked myself like “can I afford to invest?” And if yes: “what assets should I invest in?”<br />
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Conventionally speaking I can’t afford to do this. But I have done it anyway. Neither have I properly compared the merits of gold with other assets - cash or shares or bonds.<br />
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The reason I think I bought gold is because I used to write about it and I found it interesting. I also thought I must know something valuable about it.<br />
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I didn't know that this was the extent of my investment strategy and gold-owning rationale. Or rather I didn't bother close inspection until I found I had put quite a significant chunk of my cash into gold… and the price of gold started falling sharply!<br />
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Luckily <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/identity-crisis-at-gold-etf-investor.html">it’s not the first time fear has forced me to seek a coherent gold owning rationale</a>. I still haven't done it, but I’m hoping I’ll get on with it now, whether the price of gold carries on up or down.
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<b>Portfolio</b><br />
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The losses on my physical gold ETFs have moderated while the losses on the gold mining shares have escalated again - down 24% (last week <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/catching-falling-knife-attempt-buying.html">I bought £250 more units when my holding was down 20%</a> - so I didn't catch the falling knife, I lost a finger). If I haven't learnt by that mistake, the next buying opportunity is on Monday - I would have to put in an order before 8am and it wouldn't go through til midday.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-MRBtmIGldTU2UTssQCGtzCLCc6ni6DdvOlaD_zlGON4NHXVNq5pSXFDKXj3cbSjydOl986abL5RbAjTuRI000DYksyXFysAiDomFuBXOULUl5VeA4-iu9xLPZ8vrhNmB4wdx7aZcG84/s1600/hargaccmay18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="109" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-MRBtmIGldTU2UTssQCGtzCLCc6ni6DdvOlaD_zlGON4NHXVNq5pSXFDKXj3cbSjydOl986abL5RbAjTuRI000DYksyXFysAiDomFuBXOULUl5VeA4-iu9xLPZ8vrhNmB4wdx7aZcG84/s320/hargaccmay18.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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My ETF holding is down 3.5% with question marks still hanging over the state of the gold market and the strength of the pound.<br />
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<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1337355000000&chddm=10731&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=LON:PHAU&cmptdms=0&q=LON:PHGP&">Sterling gold vs dollar gold ETFs</a>:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz1YR6gmM38Il7GkNqids1rNJT5OhszyI7hOMtxh9YQMgODbK3D7eyyHi6-2CSxe2idtN2jq3J0er9VeIdDuuzx8AIIhDHfPboDewyO6o7m_00KuCb90Cfvb11mDu474ZhocTEyQhVKCE/s1600/phauphgpmay18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz1YR6gmM38Il7GkNqids1rNJT5OhszyI7hOMtxh9YQMgODbK3D7eyyHi6-2CSxe2idtN2jq3J0er9VeIdDuuzx8AIIhDHfPboDewyO6o7m_00KuCb90Cfvb11mDu474ZhocTEyQhVKCE/s320/phauphgpmay18.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-prices-051820122">Today BullionVault's daily round-up</a> highlighted<br />
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Yesterday <a href="http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-price-051720124">(Thursday May 17 ) BullionVault</a> reported Marcus Grubb at the World Gold Council saying gold would become a haven again and that China was a bigger gold importer than India.<br />
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On <a href="http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/buy-gold-051620121">Wednesday 16 May BullionVault reported analyst Axel Rudolph</a> at Commerzbank in Luxembourg saying: "Over the next few days a minor bounce back towards the breached 2008-12 uptrend line is likely to be seen before another down leg rears its head, probably by next week."<br />
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This is the price at which I bought 10 PHAU shares on 9 May.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiDKbGWELLz1GC4UstP3ylrsjFXzM99RtQPtKtlSxVL5CH4b_QAdBULXAZvKNYvdUWryktsNlPY7mgZDGHDpujIxELv4ue81b5CsbBUXcwJSkJUs9h0h-oq14d6sQOLhJ0QYIAeY5cckI/s1600/phau+buy+.png" imageanchor="1" style="background-color: white; color: #33aaff; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center; text-decoration: none;"><img border="0" height="88" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiDKbGWELLz1GC4UstP3ylrsjFXzM99RtQPtKtlSxVL5CH4b_QAdBULXAZvKNYvdUWryktsNlPY7mgZDGHDpujIxELv4ue81b5CsbBUXcwJSkJUs9h0h-oq14d6sQOLhJ0QYIAeY5cckI/s320/phau+buy+.png" style="-webkit-box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0976563) 1px 1px 5px; border: 1px solid rgb(238, 238, 238); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0976563) 1px 1px 5px; padding: 5px; position: relative;" width="320" /></a></div>
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If I had sold them today I wouldn't have covered the costs<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOSSM5j6Jn5dvcy6fcaMrYl5M_fRn4TNZZq9RJUmcAT3nVhyphenhyphenuUuS7TnDBlVflLmbrIQ_9PGBnRdOTpOgwUlmrnbXNt88eAQEJWuiSt60eVxb_azCosxFyDf3cuLWKeyBDF8eb1E8CLGeI/s1600/phau10sellapril18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="114" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOSSM5j6Jn5dvcy6fcaMrYl5M_fRn4TNZZq9RJUmcAT3nVhyphenhyphenuUuS7TnDBlVflLmbrIQ_9PGBnRdOTpOgwUlmrnbXNt88eAQEJWuiSt60eVxb_azCosxFyDf3cuLWKeyBDF8eb1E8CLGeI/s320/phau10sellapril18.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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But it would have cost me more to buy today. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTCroZO-_AqQnpyYu4DoH3dfydL1Ef7uyjtynYl8p5J-FjIwy04RiBouOb9PuLgHdqk0ykpdaMSjG-aOl7A7lV91VuzLTG2JPkkY5eJazH3h3U5r45Ri3A0v_AKGAexNX5vqQQ1ass7Ig/s1600/phau10buyapril18.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="113" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTCroZO-_AqQnpyYu4DoH3dfydL1Ef7uyjtynYl8p5J-FjIwy04RiBouOb9PuLgHdqk0ykpdaMSjG-aOl7A7lV91VuzLTG2JPkkY5eJazH3h3U5r45Ri3A0v_AKGAexNX5vqQQ1ass7Ig/s320/phau10buyapril18.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-52965233106580606002012-05-14T09:34:00.000-07:002012-05-14T09:34:33.214-07:00Source buy backs - not trading!I have been <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/i-bought-gold-today.html">talking about large volumes of shares being traded on Source's physical gold ETF on May 9 2012 </a>but it looks like it was <a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201205090923239608C">a "buy back"</a>. I don't know what that entailed. I'll see if I can find out.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-30023570246324788162012-05-14T08:47:00.001-07:002012-05-14T09:16:21.410-07:00Retail gold ETF attracts 10 fold more buying than selling<br />
As the gold price continues to fall I rather urgently need to assess my position. <span style="text-align: center;">However some UK retail gold investors seem to be pretty clear that today presented a buying opportunity. </span><br />
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The (allegedly) most popular physical gold exchange traded fund for retail investors - the <a href="http://www.etfsecurities.com/">ETF Securities</a> sterling denominated fund with the London Stock Exchange ticker <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=19&fourWayKey=JE00B1VS3770ZZGBXETC2&formName=frmRow&upToRow=-1">PHGP</a> - has seen buyers spending nearly 10 times more than sellers have sold today. With £5.2 million worth of shares bought by investors compared to £650,000 worth of shares sold. (The most popular retail gold ETF? dealt with below)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdPO6jvCmloGSJz83rVrFuq4asHpXICZOcyd32yrTyDt83jO4naMjAqNMIuWgFg0Z_WKdD3A1TsQkeHzX5sztaEDgY1V2UTn3gsV1qRiEotqPw1jguvdZ_34ScczTLSm82P78-53WLBU8/s1600/may14phgp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdPO6jvCmloGSJz83rVrFuq4asHpXICZOcyd32yrTyDt83jO4naMjAqNMIuWgFg0Z_WKdD3A1TsQkeHzX5sztaEDgY1V2UTn3gsV1qRiEotqPw1jguvdZ_34ScczTLSm82P78-53WLBU8/s320/may14phgp.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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(Click on images to expand them)</div>
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There were a few trades over the £1 million mark which helped achieve this so it was not really the voice of small players like me.<br />
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This bullishness is not shared by the UK's institutional ETF traders who are either sellers - which is the case for the <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=JE00B1VS3770JEUSDETCS">PHAU</a>, which is exactly the same as PHGP but denominated in dollars (although investors can still only buy and sell it in pounds)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghDEeOwLNCmon9y8fdaP3Nb9O2OmFBBoVZkanXKVBIE5sAAfzSNPAKmU59L6Gjl88LqrSPzk9IzWB-wnsAlrc3NwjtxVD_dqfUBFVWXzbNZztSXlvf0ra2CfWkBjOZNY8rOotkrYUS9og/s1600/may14phau.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghDEeOwLNCmon9y8fdaP3Nb9O2OmFBBoVZkanXKVBIE5sAAfzSNPAKmU59L6Gjl88LqrSPzk9IzWB-wnsAlrc3NwjtxVD_dqfUBFVWXzbNZztSXlvf0ra2CfWkBjOZNY8rOotkrYUS9og/s320/may14phau.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Or less enthusiastic buyers as per Gold Bullion Securities <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=GB00B00FHZ82JEUSDETCS">GBS</a> - a fund which cannot be included in tax free Individual Savings Accounts.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2EbhqQIA71vddme__2D8mxZrmayVwHFZ2frVdsVBASnAZnWRxGQFgZqwhiiwOGFN2Z9Ut-PrLf_blsU0Bkl7vwh1Jjl43-TYqiE4rTitkTslHkJyIEuD9ZkeyESQuM-JBoNCvRVf-2ZY/s1600/may14gbs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2EbhqQIA71vddme__2D8mxZrmayVwHFZ2frVdsVBASnAZnWRxGQFgZqwhiiwOGFN2Z9Ut-PrLf_blsU0Bkl7vwh1Jjl43-TYqiE4rTitkTslHkJyIEuD9ZkeyESQuM-JBoNCvRVf-2ZY/s320/may14gbs.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Last week's falls saw <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/i-bought-gold-today.html">massive volumes shifting </a>on the Source physical gold ETF <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=IE00B579F325IEUSDETCS">SGLD</a> but today there was very little going on.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib0ZUZZlmkW7ZHzL52fdqTV_GhKvoEiAN41lXWVc6kHuUgquPw60R38fiJukEOcRwWfvjpf2g71FPvxbU16IuYg73TNUUguxpN99j-mSuWLoMCOOCKdmXhZ5-hUnd72zqjbMQ_L5z7mqI/s1600/may14sgld.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEib0ZUZZlmkW7ZHzL52fdqTV_GhKvoEiAN41lXWVc6kHuUgquPw60R38fiJukEOcRwWfvjpf2g71FPvxbU16IuYg73TNUUguxpN99j-mSuWLoMCOOCKdmXhZ5-hUnd72zqjbMQ_L5z7mqI/s320/may14sgld.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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At the end of trading today I wanted to check how much I would have had to pay Hargreaves Lansdown for 10 more PHAU shares. I'm not sure if there was a glitch in the system or too many people having the same idea - but I was unable to:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW_CExgXKEtHXrEFPv4bEAYLl_o6Y0oVDZ6PQgNY0G4CYaUXXbyLNQySBxrGur_rdkcjoJC_L5i3Xd-tAviQYCde8_4t4ldgRUndQceqZctZiE8a6HFVg2mGoWugAwkTZ9cfj8bVgxMAo/s1600/may14execute.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="121" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW_CExgXKEtHXrEFPv4bEAYLl_o6Y0oVDZ6PQgNY0G4CYaUXXbyLNQySBxrGur_rdkcjoJC_L5i3Xd-tAviQYCde8_4t4ldgRUndQceqZctZiE8a6HFVg2mGoWugAwkTZ9cfj8bVgxMAo/s320/may14execute.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Luckily I didn't actually want to buy anything. I've decided to hang on until it's clearer what's going on and also to work out my position intellectually. It is something that I find almost any excuse to avoid! However I aim to spend some time it on now.<br />
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BullionVault, as usual, has a comprehensive looking <a href="http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-futures-051420122">assessment of the global gold market</a>.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Is PHGP the most popular gold ETF for retail investors?</span></b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ96gD7VGhFwRXEDM2Ck6KEZnNHilG1LmQpZ2sVqUhCJq0smbeVuCsSM_go-pJjvK4FQx-Mhe2lbZBK1_m4UjKs-Y2hXv0nR9srToeUBugIUFfi9BpGS9Z7w5NV8VMz5546PBVj4cYAg8/s1600/may14retail.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ96gD7VGhFwRXEDM2Ck6KEZnNHilG1LmQpZ2sVqUhCJq0smbeVuCsSM_go-pJjvK4FQx-Mhe2lbZBK1_m4UjKs-Y2hXv0nR9srToeUBugIUFfi9BpGS9Z7w5NV8VMz5546PBVj4cYAg8/s320/may14retail.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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That does appear to be the case. <a href="http://www.londonstockexchange.com/statistics/specialist-issues/etfs-etps/etf-etp-weekly-11052012.pdf">Weekly statistics published by LSE</a> showed that last week PHGP made up for 10% of all exchange traded product trading on the LSE, more than PHAU (9.5%) - click on the image above to expand. But by value each trade was a lot smaller which suggests lots of small investors using this product:<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-12022835368481477322012-05-11T08:43:00.005-07:002012-05-14T08:51:46.592-07:00Catching a falling knife attempt: buying more BlackRock Gold and GeneralToday I invested another £250 into the BlackRock Gold and General fund despite it's <a href="http://goldetfinvestor.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/blackrock-gold-and-general-10-in-week.html">dreadful performance</a>. To invest I had to place the order before 8am and the transaction went through at midday.<br />
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<b>Where my holding stood yesterday</b><br />
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I've already invested £2,250 into this fund. Unfortunately - judged on yesterday's unit price - my investment has lost 20% of its value (£466) since I started buying. What remains had a value £1783.48 as of yesterday.<br />
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The new £250 investment went through at midday today (that's when the fund is valued) and the units cost 1192p each, down from 1194p yesterday.<br />
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That's a drop of 0.16% which shaves £3 off the value of my existing holding bringing it to £1780.<br />
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<b>Where it stands now</b><br />
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With the addition of my new £250 holding my portfolio should now stand at a value of around £2030. <br />
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With units valued at 1192p and with £250 to spend I should get just under 21 units (20.97 units). That will be added to the 149 units I already own. So now I have 170 units. <br />
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Before the new investment was added:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrqXKpnxf8l0GWyLRTpshelo9hcGm9MiOevEFVHTMFNrer9prvw6dn3so8ZhjpCAgHJQc0GOQxHTSmhLqbY0nDSEhW8QIzWZ4QqzttOCxoiPjmCq5vqix-bTGR72-XAsN5rsuSVe-5scE/s1600/hargaccbefore.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="100" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrqXKpnxf8l0GWyLRTpshelo9hcGm9MiOevEFVHTMFNrer9prvw6dn3so8ZhjpCAgHJQc0GOQxHTSmhLqbY0nDSEhW8QIzWZ4QqzttOCxoiPjmCq5vqix-bTGR72-XAsN5rsuSVe-5scE/s320/hargaccbefore.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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After it was added:</div>
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The Hargreaves system had yet to update the new unit price and so the valuation and the performance are both out.<br />
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I'm now looking at how each of the 7 instalments I have paid into this fund have performed and how to interpret this.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4927433125525937227.post-34042189764198396922012-05-10T04:15:00.003-07:002012-05-10T04:17:03.278-07:00BlackRock Gold and General: -10% in a week -40% from 2011 peakThe performance of my <a href="http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/b/blackrock-gold-and-general-accumulation/charts">BlackRock Gold and General fund</a> holdings has been dire. It is down around 10% this week and nearly 40% since it's peaks in September 2011.<br />
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The 25% drop over the last year appears almost reasonable next to these two figures!<br />
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Over the year:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS-cHxEwfY2Ehpy54eg2ueVuP-9CefY6oktjkY9K76IhCM0H9dEVZnBYIjnu4hs1itfNsyTxN2xGSzDZMoIelsPS7a8lD6gYD3ChRnZ1Zmm2zzzXsqv-5VPJNCLN74bpLOr4DQvL-zLbE/s1600/blackrockgg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS-cHxEwfY2Ehpy54eg2ueVuP-9CefY6oktjkY9K76IhCM0H9dEVZnBYIjnu4hs1itfNsyTxN2xGSzDZMoIelsPS7a8lD6gYD3ChRnZ1Zmm2zzzXsqv-5VPJNCLN74bpLOr4DQvL-zLbE/s320/blackrockgg.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Over the week:<br />
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Effect on my portfolio:<br />
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I seem to have put more into it than I meant to because it's a handy consolation purchase. I can drop £250 into it for free on days when I don't have the nerve to buy ETFs with £11.95 transaction fee.<br />
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I forget that it's a totally different investment and in terms of my generally small and undiversified portfolio, it has become very significant.<br />
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Before even trying to analyse my investment rationale with this fund, its performance begs lots of questions about a view of gold itself as well as how the equity market sits alongside it. These remain unanswered for me.<br />
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Today Hargreaves Lansdown published an update on its view of the fund. I noticed they <a href="http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-in-focus/blackrock-gold-and-general?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E4280%20BlackRock%20Gold%20and%20General%20Fund%20-%20research%20update%20(1)&utm_content=Research%20link_1&theSource=E0FRN&Override=1">very politely didn't mention how very badly the fund is doing</a>.<br />
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This broker's recommendations should be taken with a major pinch of salt when it comes to the major fund managers. Ever since Hargreaves did it's best to sell Anthony Bolton's China Special Situations investment trust to its clients its credibility has gone down with me.<br />
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Not that I have anything against Anthony Bolton or his trust - although it has done badly - it's more to do with the fact that it's an investment trust and if, as I suspect most, of its investors followed him from his mutual fund, then they don't know the difference between the trust and the fund. If Bolton leaves the trust their shares will probably plummet in value, a risk they didn't face when he left the fund.<br />
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Hargreaves managed to wrangle it so they took a fee for their support of this trust which shouldn't happen on investment trusts anyway!<br />
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Some others - like <a href="http://citywire.co.uk/fund/blackrock-gold-and-general/c7382#selection">Citywire - still recommend it</a> but haven't up dated it for ages. I'll be hanging on - no doubt looking for arguments <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/potential-reversal-for-gold-miners-2012-05-09?siteid=yhoof2">like this </a>from <a href="http://mptrader.com/">Mike Paulenoff</a> at MarketWatch to justify hanging on. I might even put another £250 into it.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0