Wednesday, 9 May 2012

Fear mismatch? 10 month low for Sterling gold ETF not 4 month

I suppose this should be seen as a good thing -another proper buying opportunity for gold. But the reason it's a buying opportunity is because it's scary and I'm not immune to that fear.

However there is a mismatch, the media chat about impending huge falls in the gold price is nothing like it was back in December 2011 - at least not yet - but I think it's because in dollar terms the lows still aren't below the December 28 $1,523 low.

The Physical gold ETF denominated in Sterling, PHGP,  has fallen a lot further than PHAU but they are both the same for Sterling investors like me. 

Compared to what I paid last time I bought, it's a bargain.

But hile news channels are talking about four month lows for the gold price it's in dollars, not pounds. It's a lot longer for sterling investors, gold now costs what it did back in August 2011 making it a 10 month low

I have not worked out when it's a good time to buy in terms of the relationship between the dollar and gold. Obviously I should aim to buy when the pound is strong against the dollar - but not get too carried away with that relationship as my aim is to buy gold at a cheap price, not dollars.

At the moment the price of gold is falling in dollars and pounds because both look like safe havens. The important thing is that they are both falling even though the pound has weakened against the dollar. I still haven't bought more but yet but I aim to - I'm not sure it would be sensible while things are still in free-fall.

Reuters says that gold price falls are stirring buyers in China and India but they're all thinking it could go lower too.

Autochartist told the FT that there was, as yet, no bottom line for stocks as prices carried on down - the FTSE 100 was down 1.16% at the time of writing.

Spanish (and Italian) bond yields heading towards 6% and up in Ireland while Vietnam  - big on gold as a currency (FT 2010) - but I don't know if that plays any role in this at all) bond yields were at all time lows according to Bloomberg.

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